az-forex

Forex - Update

2007-02-02T14:34:00.001+01:00

EUR-USD reverse long 1,3030 sl 1,2980 tp 1,3110

Forex - Update

2007-02-02T11:41:00.001+01:00

Update after NFP

Forex - Update

2007-01-31T21:00:00.001+01:00

buy usd-jpy 120,73 sl 120,53

Forex - Update

2007-01-31T20:32:00.000+01:00

sell gbp-usd 1,9645 sl 1,9710

Forex - Update

2007-01-31T20:12:00.000+01:00

sell eur-usd 1,3030 sl 1,3075

Forex - Update

2007-01-31T14:42:00.001+01:00

FOREX - EUR-USD SELL-Signal ( 1,2952 ) @ market SL 1,2987

Forex strategy

2007-01-31T08:52:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

URGENT !!! - IF AFTER US RATE DECISION I WILL TRY TO TAKE POSITION I WILL UPDATE MY BLOG !!!

Today important:
EUR - German and Eurozone unemployment
GBP - Consumer Confidence
CHF - KOF
CAD - GDP
USD - GDP Ann and Chicago Index
USD - RATE DECISION !!!

EUR-USD - Resistance 1,2985-3005, move above this level will be bullish, imortant propably will be rate decision later today, so better to wait till this time:

Startegy: Stand aside for now

GBP-USD - Exactly as I wrote yesterday, some short should work... :) I take profit from my short here 1,9570...

Strategy: Short from yesterday at 1,9655 sl 1,9705 close here 1,9570...

USD-JPY - rest our long was closed on b/e, look to buy later today ...

Strategy: Try to buy on deeper deep if seen

NZD-USD - This fall should start on Monday hmmm for mew to late, sorry yesterday was my wrong if You closed short too early...

USD-CAD - our long was closed with small profit...

Strategy: Wait for CAD data, will try to buy again..

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-30T08:22:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Important today:

GBP - M4 Money Supply
CAD - Industrial Product Price and Raw Materials Price Index
USD - Consumer Confiedence
NZD - Trade Balance

REMEMBER TOMMOROW US RATE DECISION !!!

EUR-USD - Stop-profit for rest our short position as bounce is bigger than I expected. So bears did not take a chance for move twds 1,28 and lower, still range in play.

Strategy: Stand aside for now.

GBP-USD - As I wrote yesterday, support holds so i took long from 1,9570 and tokk bigger profit than 50 pips. Closed my long here at 1,9650. Possible at this moment move higher twds 1,9675-80 or even above 1,97. In my opinion the best strategy is a wait for GBP or even US data and stand aside for now.

Strategy: If GBP data will be below forecast try to sell near 1,9655-75 with tight sl.

USD-JPY - holding rest long position, disapointing JPY data earlier today could push this pair higher...

NZD-USD - NZD holds ground and main support near 0,6920, important could be todays NZD trade data later today, if You are holding short ( but daytraders propably closed position yesterday as i wrote with small minus , I lost 27 pips ) exit now or move sl higher above 0,7010 and wait for US and NZD data.

USD-CAD - Holding long but i will change sl and tp...

Strategy: move sl up to 1,1805 and tp 1,1868

Good Luck

Piotr

More details, write: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de

Forex strategy

2007-01-29T07:36:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Important today:
GBP - CBI
CAD - Manufacturing conditions

EUR-USD - Eur fighting near 1,2900 level, in my opinion 1,2860 support we should see today. No change in view at this moment, remember on Wed US rate decision. Market expect hawkisch tone, we will see soon :)

Sttrategy: Holding rest short, some bounce possible but 1,2945-50 resistance should holds, so sl for our rest short move down to 1,2960 TP 1,2740-80

GBP-USD - no clear situation in this moment, but ahead US rate decision bigger move down possible, but need to break 1,9540-60, if this level hold rally twds 1,9660 possible.

Strategy: watch support if hold buy for fast 30-50 pips or sell on rally to 1,9660-75

USD-JPY - As I wrote on friday, i bought usd-jpy at 121,45...

Strategy: First target met :) for rest sl on b/e but I changed Tp, bigger at this moment 122,80

NZD-USD - hmmm, bulls still fighting, main support holds and better still wait for double top confirmation, daytraders can try short here 0,6950-55 sl above rsistance, resistance near 0,6980-85...

USD-CAD - good support here 1,1795, while holds strong move up twds 1,1870 and higher possible...

Strategy: Long 1,1798 sl 1,1740 Tp 1,1868

Good Luck

Piotr

More details, write: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de

Forex view...

2007-01-26T07:33:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Important today:

EUR - German Import Prices
GBP - Mortgage approvals
USD - Durable Good Orders and New Home Sales

EUR-USD - No change in view at this moemnt, 1,2915 support is testing, some bounce from this level possible

Strategy: Holding short, take partial profit here, sl for rest put at 1,2960

GBP-USD - as I wrote yesterday, I took small short above 1,9700. This short was closed during asian session. Stand aside at this moment, wait for GBP data. Bulls have a chances for move again higher while 1,9560-9600 holding as support...

Strategy: wait for clear signal

USD-JPY - ...and again we have a chances for move twds 122,00-25, support121,25 and lower 120,60-80...

Strategy: Look to buy on dip sl below 120,65 limit 121,80 and 122,25

JPY - waiting for clear signal...

NZD-USD - chances for big move down...double top formation possible

Startegy: wait for double top confirmation, if done sell at market

Good Luck
Piotr

ps
More details, write : piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de

Forex strategy

2007-01-25T10:05:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Today:
EUR - IFO below market, so holding short or sell EUR on rally.
As I wrote yesterday, EUR backed below 1,30, this could suggest bigger fall in a days ahead.
Strategy: Holding Short with sl @ b/e or sell EUR on rally with sl @ 1,3065

GBP-USD - As I wrote yesterday, quick profit was taken :) from short GBP. Today watching carefull, eventual short on bigger rally...

USD-JPY- crazy market yesterday :) first our long was 1 pip ahead of sl few minutes later long saw our profit. Today pair backed below 120,60 so JPY could be stronger in a days ahead.
I hope all Traders bought yesterday jpy on dip ? Congratulations, very good profits

JPY - Look to buy on dip again - remember important JPY data later today

USD-CAD - long was closed at 1,18 where sl was putting when prices touched 1,1825-30

GOOD LUCK

Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-24T08:55:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Important Today:
GBP - GDP and BOE minutes...

EUR-USD - yesterdays closed above 1,30 could be danger for bears but im holding short position, important will be todays close, holding short and watching...

GBP-USD - strong profit taking ahead of GBP data, wait for number if will be below expectations sell GBP on any rally. All important supports was taken out early morning.

USD-JPY - strong sell-off, but support at 120,80 ( i wrote about this yesterday ) holds, some bounce possible from this level...

Strategy: Buy 120,85 sl 120,65 tp 121,30

USD-CAD- exactly as i wrote yesterday, we saw fall below figure, it was good moment in my opinion to going long with sl below 1,1745...
Strategy: Holding Long sl below 1,1745 Tp 1,1850 for today

AUD-USD - Our short was stopped out, we took this position propably too fast, watch where we are now :( stand aside at this moment

Jpy - another buy signals....wait for confirmation and buy on dip

good luck
Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-23T08:47:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Today:
EUR - New Orders
GBP - CBI
CAD - CPI and Retail Sales and Leading Indicators
USD - Leading Indicators

EUR-USD - No change in view, 1,2900-1,3000 range, look to sell near 1,3000-15 for move twds 1,2900 and lower, still 1,2740 on the way in my opinion

Strategy: Sell EUR-USD 1,3015 sl 1,3055

GBP-USD - 1,9815 is testing now, as i wrote yesterday, GBP looks strong, if You are long put sl below 1,9760 at this moment

USD-JPY - 121,60 touched, next 122 soon, look to buy on dip towards 120,80-121,20

USD-CAD - I toook profit from long yesterday at 1,1830 ( which was opened few days earlier as i wrote ), today we have important CAD data, some correction possible, try to go long again on dip or even deeper dip if CAD number will be good.

AUD-USD - Look to sell...

Strategy: Sell at 0,7905 sl 0,7935 tp 0,7845

Good Luck

Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-22T06:29:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Monday - no important US data and only producer prices from EUR and CHF

EUR-USD - range trading 1,2900-1,2980. On the upside next resistance 1,3015 and higher near 1,3045, on the downside support below figure near 1,,2870 and 1,2840, still target for bears 1,2740 while we trading below 1,3000 on daily close basis, but test 1,3015-45 cant be rouled out during the day.

USD-JPY - only up? Today propably yes, while 120,80-121,00 support holds. target 121,60 and 122,00.

Strategy: Look to buy on todays dip for move twds 121,60 today maybe 122,00 but also remember important Jpy data later this week, some profit taking possible late tuesday or wednesday.

GBP-USD - looks very interesting, strong support 1,9640 , earlier 1,9690. Wednesday very interesting BOE minutes. In my opinion till this minutes we should stay above 1,9640 and if after BOE we still will be above , move twds 2,0100-50 possible very quickly.

Strategy: If You have short position propably better to exit with smallest pips win than lost some more pips or put sl at b/e. Hmm no clear situation now but at this moment little bigger chances for bulls.
Look to buy on dip towds 1,9690 if seen.

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex analysis

2007-01-17T10:15:00.000+01:00

Hello traders,

nice profits yesterday :) , if You are still holding positions, You can take some profits or put sl on b/e.

Important today:
GBP - jobless
EUR - cpi
USD - ppi and beige book later today

EUR-USD - found support near 1,2920, some talk emerging of 'interesting/clever' buyers placed just below $1.2920. Offers back to 1,2940. Stand aside at this moment or holding shorts from yesterday ( i took profit ), wait for US data.

USD-CAD - overbought on 1h chart, be carefull, some pullback possible, support starts 1,1690-1700 next 1,1640-50 - i took profit from my long from yesterday and waiting for 1,1700-20 to re-build this long position.

USD-JPY - 121,00 then 121,40, current 120,55. Fall back below 120,60 could suggest deeper pullback twds 120,00-20, important while 119,80 holds look to buy on dip for move twds 121,00

GBP-USD - important level 1,9700-05, above this level 2,01 target very possible. Combination of US and GBP data should give us answer where we are going.
Startegy: put entry stop buy order at 1,9715-25, bigger sl 120-150 pips for move twds 2,0100-50

USD-CHF - still 1,2500-05 resistance, move above this level should open the way twds 1,2550-60, while below this level we could see fall twds 1,2440 then 1,2410. Wait for US data.

GBP-JPY - looks very strong while above 236,30-40, if and when gbp-usd break 1,9705 propably very profitable will be long here...

good luck
Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-16T07:05:00.000+01:00

Hello traders,

Monday - Us was closed

Today:
GBP -CPI and RETAIL PRICE INDEX
EUR - ZEW INDEX
USD - EMPIRE MANUFACTURING
CAD - BOC RATE DECISION
NZD - CPI

EUR-USD - as i wrote in my last post, support at 1,2865-75 holds, but still in my opinion while below 1,3000-30 basis on daily close bigger chances for bears for move twds 1,2740. Inflation raports will dominate this weeek, but still expect that usd could be stronger this week.

Strategy: If You are not short yet, wait for ZEW index, if will be better than market expect wait for 25-30 pips move up then short with tight sl or if ZEW will be worst will take short at market.

USD-CAD - BOC rate decision today. No change is wide expect. Propably clear direction after this decision ( but first 15 minutes high volitality ). Bull propably will try to take 1,1800 level formove towds 1,1830-50 and 1,20 in a days ahead.

Strategy: if rate will no change, buy at 1,1640 add at 1,1580 put sl below 1,1575 for move twds psychological barier 1,2000

good luck
Piotr

Forex - Update

2007-01-11T21:24:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

EUR-USD - unfortunately counter-trend position was not profitable today ( thanks that sl was lower :) ). ECB propably will not rate hike on February, so that was main reason ( + good US data ) why we are below 1,29 at this moment. But please remember tommorow important us data + possible profit taking ahead of the weekend, also combination 100dma and 200 dma ( 1,2865-75 ) could suggest that smal rebound is possible. Be careful tommorow and if daily close will be below 1,2865 we should have opent the way towards 1,2740.

GBP-USD - after BOE rate hike we saw strong rally twds 1,9535, after ECB and US data market pushed back GBP twds 1,94 level. Now important will be where we will close today, if above 1,9450 we will have another chance for GBP rally, below this level bears propably will try to take their chance. Support 1,9380 then 1,9350.

JPY - strong sell-off during first part of the day. During US session we have some consolidation even JPY looks stronger. Next few hours should show us where JPY will close this week.

AUD-USD - interesting situation after 0,7850, sttrong back twds 0,78, i will try to use 0,7830-50 to build short positions,

good luck

Piotr

Forex view...

2007-01-11T14:00:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

BOE - SURPRISE Rate hike 5,25%
ECB - No rate hike ( waiting for Trichet comments )
JPY - strong sell-off again...

EUR-USD - yesterday i wrote that new short could be build near breaking points at 1,2980, if You are short close here at 1,2980. We could see rally twds 1,3030 or even 1,3050-60 after Trichet. Majors vs. USD could go higher after GBP rate hike and ahead tommorows US data. Risky counter-trand position could give us profit today, so small longs here with tight sl ( fast exit if we fall below 1,2960-65 after Trichet ) with first target 1,3030 even 1,3050-60.

GBP-USD - strong rise after BOE rate hike to 5,25%. Resistance at 1,9450 was taken out quickly, now GBP holds well above 1,95. We could see another rally twds 1,9550 during us session. Buy on small dip ( 1,9460-75) for 1,9530-50.

EUR-JPY - as i wrote yesterday i took small short but my position was stopped out very quickly. Another JPY sell-off, surprise for me after last week reversal. Watch market at this moment, stand aside.

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-10T18:52:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

I was waiting for clear direction... so propably we have new direction...

EUR-USD - 1,2980 support was taken out easly, important could be todays close, but in my opinion bears now have bigger chances and should push pair lower twds 1,2870 ( now support at 1,2930 is testing ). New short position could be build near breaking point ( 1,2980 ) with tight sl.
NOTE: EUR is also under-pressure from GBP and again from JPY.

EUR-JPY - 154,90-155,30 - propably good level for short with 152,50-153,00 limit target. If 152,50 will be broken easy, we could see deeper fall twds even 147.

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex - Update

2007-01-08T17:53:00.000+01:00

close half usd-chf at 1,2355 sl for rest on entry point...

sl for usd-jpy move lower at 118,80...

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex - Update

2007-01-08T15:21:00.000+01:00

Short USD-CHF 1,2410 sl 1,2465 first target near 1,2310-20

Short USD-JPY 118,75 sl 119,15-20 tp 117,25

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex view...

2007-01-08T05:11:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Poor US data this week
NFP Beat Expectations
JPY - The Big Winner Last Week

EUR-USD - consolidating 1,2980 ( main support, breaking point ) - 1,3020. eed to move above 1,3020 for double bottom possibility, below 1,2980 bullish scenario will be negated. EUR - strong under-pressure from EUR-JPY. Watching market...

USD-CHF - CHF was stronger last Friday vs EUR and GBP. End of Carry Trade ?
Pair testing strong resistance now - watch chart below. This is big chance for CHF bulls to push pair lower. If not here, where ?
Strategy: Build short position here with sl above 1,2580 tp 1,18-1,19

JPY - watch GBP-JPY chart below, propably buy JPY on dips strategy will work for a next weeks...

Good Luck
Piotr

FOREX - NFP

2007-01-05T14:28:00.000+01:00

Hello,

2 minutes to NFP...
I will wait for clear direction...

Below my yesterdays positions...

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex - Update

2007-01-04T16:37:00.000+01:00

I took small longs:
EUR-USD at 1,3090
GBP-USD at 1,9440

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex - USD

2007-01-04T14:47:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,
Im not happy in 100% because my short usd-chf was stopped out, but wednesday was very good for me.

Yesterday:
ADP-worst
ISM-beat forecast
FOMC minutes - more dovish than market expected in my opinion ( thats why im not happy with 100%, normally after minutes like this we should see usd sell-off ).

Today:
Jobless worst

Tommorow:
NFP ?

Two strategy, first stand aside and wait for NFP tommorow and watch reaction, second watch market today and if we will see another round of buing usd, try sell some near end of the day.
Also i found yesterday very interesting analysis: resume: if EUR-USD will not break CLEAR 1,30 till the end of next week, we should see rally twds 1,35 quickly... We will see.

As i expected the big winner is JPY. Strategy buy JPY on dip should work well...

Good Luck
Piotr