az-forex

Forex - Update

2007-02-02T14:34:00.001+01:00

EUR-USD reverse long 1,3030 sl 1,2980 tp 1,3110

Forex - Update

2007-02-02T11:41:00.001+01:00

Update after NFP

Forex - Update

2007-01-31T21:00:00.001+01:00

buy usd-jpy 120,73 sl 120,53

Forex - Update

2007-01-31T20:32:00.000+01:00

sell gbp-usd 1,9645 sl 1,9710

Forex - Update

2007-01-31T20:12:00.000+01:00

sell eur-usd 1,3030 sl 1,3075

Forex - Update

2007-01-31T14:42:00.001+01:00

FOREX - EUR-USD SELL-Signal ( 1,2952 ) @ market SL 1,2987

Forex strategy

2007-01-31T08:52:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

URGENT !!! - IF AFTER US RATE DECISION I WILL TRY TO TAKE POSITION I WILL UPDATE MY BLOG !!!

Today important:
EUR - German and Eurozone unemployment
GBP - Consumer Confidence
CHF - KOF
CAD - GDP
USD - GDP Ann and Chicago Index
USD - RATE DECISION !!!

EUR-USD - Resistance 1,2985-3005, move above this level will be bullish, imortant propably will be rate decision later today, so better to wait till this time:

Startegy: Stand aside for now

GBP-USD - Exactly as I wrote yesterday, some short should work... :) I take profit from my short here 1,9570...

Strategy: Short from yesterday at 1,9655 sl 1,9705 close here 1,9570...

USD-JPY - rest our long was closed on b/e, look to buy later today ...

Strategy: Try to buy on deeper deep if seen

NZD-USD - This fall should start on Monday hmmm for mew to late, sorry yesterday was my wrong if You closed short too early...

USD-CAD - our long was closed with small profit...

Strategy: Wait for CAD data, will try to buy again..

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-30T08:22:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Important today:

GBP - M4 Money Supply
CAD - Industrial Product Price and Raw Materials Price Index
USD - Consumer Confiedence
NZD - Trade Balance

REMEMBER TOMMOROW US RATE DECISION !!!

EUR-USD - Stop-profit for rest our short position as bounce is bigger than I expected. So bears did not take a chance for move twds 1,28 and lower, still range in play.

Strategy: Stand aside for now.

GBP-USD - As I wrote yesterday, support holds so i took long from 1,9570 and tokk bigger profit than 50 pips. Closed my long here at 1,9650. Possible at this moment move higher twds 1,9675-80 or even above 1,97. In my opinion the best strategy is a wait for GBP or even US data and stand aside for now.

Strategy: If GBP data will be below forecast try to sell near 1,9655-75 with tight sl.

USD-JPY - holding rest long position, disapointing JPY data earlier today could push this pair higher...

NZD-USD - NZD holds ground and main support near 0,6920, important could be todays NZD trade data later today, if You are holding short ( but daytraders propably closed position yesterday as i wrote with small minus , I lost 27 pips ) exit now or move sl higher above 0,7010 and wait for US and NZD data.

USD-CAD - Holding long but i will change sl and tp...

Strategy: move sl up to 1,1805 and tp 1,1868

Good Luck

Piotr

More details, write: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de

Forex strategy

2007-01-29T07:36:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Important today:
GBP - CBI
CAD - Manufacturing conditions

EUR-USD - Eur fighting near 1,2900 level, in my opinion 1,2860 support we should see today. No change in view at this moment, remember on Wed US rate decision. Market expect hawkisch tone, we will see soon :)

Sttrategy: Holding rest short, some bounce possible but 1,2945-50 resistance should holds, so sl for our rest short move down to 1,2960 TP 1,2740-80

GBP-USD - no clear situation in this moment, but ahead US rate decision bigger move down possible, but need to break 1,9540-60, if this level hold rally twds 1,9660 possible.

Strategy: watch support if hold buy for fast 30-50 pips or sell on rally to 1,9660-75

USD-JPY - As I wrote on friday, i bought usd-jpy at 121,45...

Strategy: First target met :) for rest sl on b/e but I changed Tp, bigger at this moment 122,80

NZD-USD - hmmm, bulls still fighting, main support holds and better still wait for double top confirmation, daytraders can try short here 0,6950-55 sl above rsistance, resistance near 0,6980-85...

USD-CAD - good support here 1,1795, while holds strong move up twds 1,1870 and higher possible...

Strategy: Long 1,1798 sl 1,1740 Tp 1,1868

Good Luck

Piotr

More details, write: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de

Forex view...

2007-01-26T07:33:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Important today:

EUR - German Import Prices
GBP - Mortgage approvals
USD - Durable Good Orders and New Home Sales

EUR-USD - No change in view at this moemnt, 1,2915 support is testing, some bounce from this level possible

Strategy: Holding short, take partial profit here, sl for rest put at 1,2960

GBP-USD - as I wrote yesterday, I took small short above 1,9700. This short was closed during asian session. Stand aside at this moment, wait for GBP data. Bulls have a chances for move again higher while 1,9560-9600 holding as support...

Strategy: wait for clear signal

USD-JPY - ...and again we have a chances for move twds 122,00-25, support121,25 and lower 120,60-80...

Strategy: Look to buy on dip sl below 120,65 limit 121,80 and 122,25

JPY - waiting for clear signal...

NZD-USD - chances for big move down...double top formation possible

Startegy: wait for double top confirmation, if done sell at market

Good Luck
Piotr

ps
More details, write : piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de

Forex strategy

2007-01-25T10:05:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Today:
EUR - IFO below market, so holding short or sell EUR on rally.
As I wrote yesterday, EUR backed below 1,30, this could suggest bigger fall in a days ahead.
Strategy: Holding Short with sl @ b/e or sell EUR on rally with sl @ 1,3065

GBP-USD - As I wrote yesterday, quick profit was taken :) from short GBP. Today watching carefull, eventual short on bigger rally...

USD-JPY- crazy market yesterday :) first our long was 1 pip ahead of sl few minutes later long saw our profit. Today pair backed below 120,60 so JPY could be stronger in a days ahead.
I hope all Traders bought yesterday jpy on dip ? Congratulations, very good profits

JPY - Look to buy on dip again - remember important JPY data later today

USD-CAD - long was closed at 1,18 where sl was putting when prices touched 1,1825-30

GOOD LUCK

Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-24T08:55:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Important Today:
GBP - GDP and BOE minutes...

EUR-USD - yesterdays closed above 1,30 could be danger for bears but im holding short position, important will be todays close, holding short and watching...

GBP-USD - strong profit taking ahead of GBP data, wait for number if will be below expectations sell GBP on any rally. All important supports was taken out early morning.

USD-JPY - strong sell-off, but support at 120,80 ( i wrote about this yesterday ) holds, some bounce possible from this level...

Strategy: Buy 120,85 sl 120,65 tp 121,30

USD-CAD- exactly as i wrote yesterday, we saw fall below figure, it was good moment in my opinion to going long with sl below 1,1745...
Strategy: Holding Long sl below 1,1745 Tp 1,1850 for today

AUD-USD - Our short was stopped out, we took this position propably too fast, watch where we are now :( stand aside at this moment

Jpy - another buy signals....wait for confirmation and buy on dip

good luck
Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-23T08:47:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Today:
EUR - New Orders
GBP - CBI
CAD - CPI and Retail Sales and Leading Indicators
USD - Leading Indicators

EUR-USD - No change in view, 1,2900-1,3000 range, look to sell near 1,3000-15 for move twds 1,2900 and lower, still 1,2740 on the way in my opinion

Strategy: Sell EUR-USD 1,3015 sl 1,3055

GBP-USD - 1,9815 is testing now, as i wrote yesterday, GBP looks strong, if You are long put sl below 1,9760 at this moment

USD-JPY - 121,60 touched, next 122 soon, look to buy on dip towards 120,80-121,20

USD-CAD - I toook profit from long yesterday at 1,1830 ( which was opened few days earlier as i wrote ), today we have important CAD data, some correction possible, try to go long again on dip or even deeper dip if CAD number will be good.

AUD-USD - Look to sell...

Strategy: Sell at 0,7905 sl 0,7935 tp 0,7845

Good Luck

Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-22T06:29:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Monday - no important US data and only producer prices from EUR and CHF

EUR-USD - range trading 1,2900-1,2980. On the upside next resistance 1,3015 and higher near 1,3045, on the downside support below figure near 1,,2870 and 1,2840, still target for bears 1,2740 while we trading below 1,3000 on daily close basis, but test 1,3015-45 cant be rouled out during the day.

USD-JPY - only up? Today propably yes, while 120,80-121,00 support holds. target 121,60 and 122,00.

Strategy: Look to buy on todays dip for move twds 121,60 today maybe 122,00 but also remember important Jpy data later this week, some profit taking possible late tuesday or wednesday.

GBP-USD - looks very interesting, strong support 1,9640 , earlier 1,9690. Wednesday very interesting BOE minutes. In my opinion till this minutes we should stay above 1,9640 and if after BOE we still will be above , move twds 2,0100-50 possible very quickly.

Strategy: If You have short position propably better to exit with smallest pips win than lost some more pips or put sl at b/e. Hmm no clear situation now but at this moment little bigger chances for bulls.
Look to buy on dip towds 1,9690 if seen.

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex analysis

2007-01-17T10:15:00.000+01:00

Hello traders,

nice profits yesterday :) , if You are still holding positions, You can take some profits or put sl on b/e.

Important today:
GBP - jobless
EUR - cpi
USD - ppi and beige book later today

EUR-USD - found support near 1,2920, some talk emerging of 'interesting/clever' buyers placed just below $1.2920. Offers back to 1,2940. Stand aside at this moment or holding shorts from yesterday ( i took profit ), wait for US data.

USD-CAD - overbought on 1h chart, be carefull, some pullback possible, support starts 1,1690-1700 next 1,1640-50 - i took profit from my long from yesterday and waiting for 1,1700-20 to re-build this long position.

USD-JPY - 121,00 then 121,40, current 120,55. Fall back below 120,60 could suggest deeper pullback twds 120,00-20, important while 119,80 holds look to buy on dip for move twds 121,00

GBP-USD - important level 1,9700-05, above this level 2,01 target very possible. Combination of US and GBP data should give us answer where we are going.
Startegy: put entry stop buy order at 1,9715-25, bigger sl 120-150 pips for move twds 2,0100-50

USD-CHF - still 1,2500-05 resistance, move above this level should open the way twds 1,2550-60, while below this level we could see fall twds 1,2440 then 1,2410. Wait for US data.

GBP-JPY - looks very strong while above 236,30-40, if and when gbp-usd break 1,9705 propably very profitable will be long here...

good luck
Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-16T07:05:00.000+01:00

Hello traders,

Monday - Us was closed

Today:
GBP -CPI and RETAIL PRICE INDEX
EUR - ZEW INDEX
USD - EMPIRE MANUFACTURING
CAD - BOC RATE DECISION
NZD - CPI

EUR-USD - as i wrote in my last post, support at 1,2865-75 holds, but still in my opinion while below 1,3000-30 basis on daily close bigger chances for bears for move twds 1,2740. Inflation raports will dominate this weeek, but still expect that usd could be stronger this week.

Strategy: If You are not short yet, wait for ZEW index, if will be better than market expect wait for 25-30 pips move up then short with tight sl or if ZEW will be worst will take short at market.

USD-CAD - BOC rate decision today. No change is wide expect. Propably clear direction after this decision ( but first 15 minutes high volitality ). Bull propably will try to take 1,1800 level formove towds 1,1830-50 and 1,20 in a days ahead.

Strategy: if rate will no change, buy at 1,1640 add at 1,1580 put sl below 1,1575 for move twds psychological barier 1,2000

good luck
Piotr

Forex - Update

2007-01-11T21:24:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

EUR-USD - unfortunately counter-trend position was not profitable today ( thanks that sl was lower :) ). ECB propably will not rate hike on February, so that was main reason ( + good US data ) why we are below 1,29 at this moment. But please remember tommorow important us data + possible profit taking ahead of the weekend, also combination 100dma and 200 dma ( 1,2865-75 ) could suggest that smal rebound is possible. Be careful tommorow and if daily close will be below 1,2865 we should have opent the way towards 1,2740.

GBP-USD - after BOE rate hike we saw strong rally twds 1,9535, after ECB and US data market pushed back GBP twds 1,94 level. Now important will be where we will close today, if above 1,9450 we will have another chance for GBP rally, below this level bears propably will try to take their chance. Support 1,9380 then 1,9350.

JPY - strong sell-off during first part of the day. During US session we have some consolidation even JPY looks stronger. Next few hours should show us where JPY will close this week.

AUD-USD - interesting situation after 0,7850, sttrong back twds 0,78, i will try to use 0,7830-50 to build short positions,

good luck

Piotr

Forex view...

2007-01-11T14:00:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

BOE - SURPRISE Rate hike 5,25%
ECB - No rate hike ( waiting for Trichet comments )
JPY - strong sell-off again...

EUR-USD - yesterday i wrote that new short could be build near breaking points at 1,2980, if You are short close here at 1,2980. We could see rally twds 1,3030 or even 1,3050-60 after Trichet. Majors vs. USD could go higher after GBP rate hike and ahead tommorows US data. Risky counter-trand position could give us profit today, so small longs here with tight sl ( fast exit if we fall below 1,2960-65 after Trichet ) with first target 1,3030 even 1,3050-60.

GBP-USD - strong rise after BOE rate hike to 5,25%. Resistance at 1,9450 was taken out quickly, now GBP holds well above 1,95. We could see another rally twds 1,9550 during us session. Buy on small dip ( 1,9460-75) for 1,9530-50.

EUR-JPY - as i wrote yesterday i took small short but my position was stopped out very quickly. Another JPY sell-off, surprise for me after last week reversal. Watch market at this moment, stand aside.

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-10T18:52:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

I was waiting for clear direction... so propably we have new direction...

EUR-USD - 1,2980 support was taken out easly, important could be todays close, but in my opinion bears now have bigger chances and should push pair lower twds 1,2870 ( now support at 1,2930 is testing ). New short position could be build near breaking point ( 1,2980 ) with tight sl.
NOTE: EUR is also under-pressure from GBP and again from JPY.

EUR-JPY - 154,90-155,30 - propably good level for short with 152,50-153,00 limit target. If 152,50 will be broken easy, we could see deeper fall twds even 147.

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex - Update

2007-01-08T17:53:00.000+01:00

close half usd-chf at 1,2355 sl for rest on entry point...

sl for usd-jpy move lower at 118,80...

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex - Update

2007-01-08T15:21:00.000+01:00

Short USD-CHF 1,2410 sl 1,2465 first target near 1,2310-20

Short USD-JPY 118,75 sl 119,15-20 tp 117,25

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex view...

2007-01-08T05:11:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Poor US data this week
NFP Beat Expectations
JPY - The Big Winner Last Week

EUR-USD - consolidating 1,2980 ( main support, breaking point ) - 1,3020. eed to move above 1,3020 for double bottom possibility, below 1,2980 bullish scenario will be negated. EUR - strong under-pressure from EUR-JPY. Watching market...

USD-CHF - CHF was stronger last Friday vs EUR and GBP. End of Carry Trade ?
Pair testing strong resistance now - watch chart below. This is big chance for CHF bulls to push pair lower. If not here, where ?
Strategy: Build short position here with sl above 1,2580 tp 1,18-1,19

JPY - watch GBP-JPY chart below, propably buy JPY on dips strategy will work for a next weeks...

Good Luck
Piotr

FOREX - NFP

2007-01-05T14:28:00.000+01:00

Hello,

2 minutes to NFP...
I will wait for clear direction...

Below my yesterdays positions...

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex - Update

2007-01-04T16:37:00.000+01:00

I took small longs:
EUR-USD at 1,3090
GBP-USD at 1,9440

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex - USD

2007-01-04T14:47:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,
Im not happy in 100% because my short usd-chf was stopped out, but wednesday was very good for me.

Yesterday:
ADP-worst
ISM-beat forecast
FOMC minutes - more dovish than market expected in my opinion ( thats why im not happy with 100%, normally after minutes like this we should see usd sell-off ).

Today:
Jobless worst

Tommorow:
NFP ?

Two strategy, first stand aside and wait for NFP tommorow and watch reaction, second watch market today and if we will see another round of buing usd, try sell some near end of the day.
Also i found yesterday very interesting analysis: resume: if EUR-USD will not break CLEAR 1,30 till the end of next week, we should see rally twds 1,35 quickly... We will see.

As i expected the big winner is JPY. Strategy buy JPY on dip should work well...

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex - USD

2007-01-03T16:48:00.000+01:00

As I wrote earlier I will try to sell USD so...

USD-CHF sell some here at 1,2250 sl above 1,23

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex-JPY

2007-01-03T16:18:00.000+01:00

Close short GBP-JPY 233,10 + 90pips
Close EUR-JPY 157,52 + 40pips

Maybe to early i exited from rest usd long positions, but... good profit today :)

Stand aside at this moment, but maybe later today i will decide to sell USD...

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex - Update

2007-01-03T15:12:00.000+01:00

Short Eur-Jpy from 157,92-158
Short Gbp-Jpy from 234,00

If You are short on Eur-Usd exit here 1,3235 and wait for ISM
also If You are short Gbp-Usd exit here at 1,9590

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex strategy

2007-01-03T13:20:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,
Jo-Jo market, USD recovering after yesterdays strong fall.
ISM and FOMC minutes could be important today.
ISM - back above 50 could push USD higher.

EUR-USD - yesterday strong rise twds 1,33 and good buing signal
was negated today, below 1,3245, but pair found good support near todays low ( 1,3220 - trendline on 4h chart). Yesterday pair not backed to my entry level ( maybe good, maybe not good :) ). Today we have inverted situation, sell signal while Eur is trading below 1,3245-65 but...
Wait for ISM number and if will be above 50,0-50,2, sell pair near current level ( 1,3237 ) or even higher with tight sl for 1,3205 and 1,3180.

GBP-USD - only strong rise yesterday, my first position saw profit and market did not back to my entry level for second position. Today failure break 1,9730-50, pushed pair lower. Strong support at 1,9665 was taken out and stop-loss orders pushed pair lower towards 1,96 level. Today GBP is underpressure also from EUR, this could be sign that cable could fall twds 1,9515 and lower. JO-JO market...good for loosing money, be carefull...but if ISM will be above 50 try to sell pair near 1,9620-40 for 1,9515-25 with sl above 1,9665.

USD-CAD - look to buy on any dip twds 1,1590-1,1620 for move twds 1,20.

JPY - look to buy japanese currency vs majors near current levels...

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex view...

2007-01-02T12:43:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders in 2007.
USD loosing ground vs EUR and GBP.

EUR-USD - Resistance at 1,3245 was taken out, now pair testing nxt near 1,3290, above this level bulss will have a chance for 1,3325-64. Support at 1,3210-40. I will use this level for build new longs with sl below 1,3180.

GBP-USD - my long opened 28.12 saw limit earlier today at 1,9730.
Resistance at 1,9670 was taken out and bulls testing next resistance at 1,9730. Todays strong rise suggest that bulls still have chances for 2,00-01 level. Clear break 1,9730-9750 will open way twds 1,9845. Support: 1,9650-70 and 1,9580-9610. New longs should be open above resistance ( 1,9750 ) or on a sharp fall ( 1,9625-50 ). Fall below 1,9560-80 will cancel this bullish scenario.

Today: ISM index, tommorow: ADP and FOMC minutes and Friday: NFP,

Good Luck
Piotr

Happy New Year !!!

2006-12-29T17:37:00.000+01:00

Dear Investors,
i hope that 2006 was a good year for You and I wish You even better results in 2007

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Piotr

Forex view...

2006-12-28T15:07:00.000+01:00

Hello,

Weaker USD during european session... Greenback loosing ground vs. Eur and Gbp
Strong sell-off ahead? Propably, if Us data at 15.00 will be weaker we could see strong sell-off...

GBP-USD - on 1h chart downtrendline was broken, bullish flag confirmation above 1,9600 also inverted shs formation... All this suggest that bulls will try push pair higher today twds 1,9730-50, above this level 1,9850. Bullish scenario will be cancel, if we fall below 1,9580. Watch Us number at 15.00 gmt.

Strategy: small long at 1,9615-30 sl below 1,9580 tp 1,9730

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex raport

2006-12-27T15:38:00.000+01:00

Hello,

No special fireworks after Christmas, only one thing is important:
Roumors that BOJ will rate hike on January...

So important will be today where we will close, watching market carefully...

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex view...

2006-12-22T14:38:00.000+01:00

Hello traders....

Reaction after US data: USD holding ground vs JPY, note:GBP,EUR and CHF tring to push USD lower...
Today also final Michigan number...

EUR-USD - our long was stopped out at 1,3150, no trades ahead of Christmas weekend

GBP-USD - holding long ( strategy from yesterday ), now I put stop-profit order at 1,9640

USD-JPY- narrow sl for short to 118,55 and tp 117,40

BEST WISHES AND HAPPY CHRISTMAS !!!

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex analysis

2006-12-21T13:52:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Be carefull ahead of trading Christmas...

EUR-USD - very quiet trading , yesterday bears tried to break 1,3160-80, but this level still holds. Below 1,3130 and 1,3060. Important today: US GDP, Jobless claims at 13.30 gmt, later at 15.00 Leading Indicators and finnaly Philly FED at 17.00 gmt, should show direction.

Strategy: put sl for longs at 1,3150

GBP-USD - surprise for me is strong 1,9730-50 resistance. In my opinion stronger was 1,9670 which bulls broken very easy on Tuesaday. Now watching 1,9580-9620 level if holds after US data, bulls should allive :)

Strategy:If support will hold after US data, try small long near this level with sl near 1,9560.

USD-JPY - range 117,80-118,45. Yesterday during us session bulls tried again pushe pair higher above reistance, but failure break and quick profit taking pushed back pair towards 118. Us data should give us direction.
Strategy: sl for short which i took yesterday after failure break resistance move at 118,60

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex strategy

2006-12-20T04:02:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Usd was strong sell-off yesterdy, even after better US numbers ...

EUR-USD - backed above 1,32, noe testing another minor resistance near 1,3240, roumors about stop-buy orders above this level, which quickly can push pair twds 1,3280-3300, also indicators are positive, no consolidation-correction during asia session suggest another round selling usd possible during european or us session, propably bulls want to take their christmas gift and we could see 1,3460 and 1,3660 very quickly.
Strategy buing some...add on dip at 1,3180 sl just below tp 1,3295 for half and open for rest

GBP-USD - bulls fighting with 1,9730 resistance. Clear break will open the way twds 1,9845. On this pair also some traders want to take great bonus ahead of the end of the year. Support at 1,9650-75 should holds...
NOTE: If You want to predict some target on this pair please add 2% even 2,5% to november close and what You recive ? Yes this is possible target - above 2,00-01 ( why 2%-2,5% ? - average gain GBP vs USD on December ).
Strategy: the same

USD-JPY - supported from EUR-JPY but some negative signs You can see below on 4h chart.
Strong resistance at 118,35, only clear break this level could hold bulls hope for move twds 118,75-119,00. Rumors - some stop buy orders above 118,40. Support 117,65-80 then 117,20.

Strategy: watch another probe for move above resistance, if 118,35-40 will holds , take short with tight sl just above this level.

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex update...20.gmt

2006-12-19T21:01:00.000+01:00

Hello,

EUR-USD
Pair hit 1,3210-15 resistance and backed below the figure.
watch todays close, could be important.
Generally EURbroken downtrend line on 4h chart ( watch chart ) and
we should see rally twds 1,3360-80 earlier minor resistance at 1,3280.
Try to go long on back to broken line if seen during asian session.

GBP-USD
Direction was change today early morning. Resistance at 1,9670 was taken out during us session. Pair also broken downtrend - line, watch today close could be important.
If You still holding rest long put sl higher at 1,9620.
I closed all longs, with very good profit, will try to re-buy above 1,9730. Bulls have a big chances for move twds 1,9850 and higher twds 2,00-01.

I had some technically problems, so few last post was deleted.
Sorry for this problem...
If somebody has my latest post please send to me, thanks...

Good Luck
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

Forex view

2006-11-29T13:30:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

This is a part of my yesterdays raport which was sent to my email-readers:

EUR-USD
Another test 1,3160-80, support start near 1,3120 then 1,3080 ahed of 1,3025, key 1,2980.
Bulls need to move above resistance , next target 1,3225.
Startegy: Consolidation possible, wait for US data nad Bernankie, or buy above resistance for short trade

GBP-USD
1,9460 was tested again today, need to move above for 1,9500-50, failure break could push pair lower, after this double top formation possible
Strategy: Consolidation possible, wait for US data nad Bernankie, or buy above resistance for short trade

USD-CHF
Support near 1,2020, risk for bounce twds 1,2150-60.
Strategy: Look to sell on rally

USD-JPY-
Support today 115,35-45, could be important, if will be broken next target 114,45 ( 50% of May to Oct rally ) then 113,35 – SHS pattern break last week. Resistance 116,30 then 100DMA at 117,10

EUR/JPY – 153,04 should be strong resistance, while below this level we could see some consolidation ahed of next move twds 154,00. Support near 151,20.
Strategy: buy on any dip

GBP-JPY
Multiyear high above 206 level, support now at 205,25-30.
Strategy: buy on dip with sl below support

JAPAN: Senior Govt Official Yoshimi Watanabe reported saying,
- Economic conditions not yet ready for BOJ rate hike
- BOJ rate hike would drag down economic growth when uncertainty
already rising
- Expects BOJ to work with government in conducting monetary policy.

Good Luck Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

Forex Strategy

2006-11-27T15:25:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Strong USD sell-off last week, it looks like liquidation Long USD positions, this week we opened higher ( EUR-USD ) Touched 20 month high, but we have correction at this moment, propably USD will be weaker this week, watch market....

EUR-USD

Correction start from near 1,3180 (1.3185 -- the 76.4% of 1.1640 to 1.3670 ), could suggest some consolidation, at this moment support 1,3085, but if will break we could see 1,3015-25, key is 1,2980. While above 1,2980 bulls have a chance for move twds 1,3480 and 1,3666.

Strategy:
Buy at 1,3015-25 with sl below 1,2980 Tp open ( try to close first half near 1,3185, after this put sl on entry level )

GBP-USD

1.9460 - a resistance line from Sept 1992, above - Dec 2004 high at 1.9550. Good support , todays low near 1,9300 level, then 1,9250 with potential 1,9220.

Strategy:
Buy at 1,9280-9305 sl below 1,9250 Tp 1,9460

USD-JPY

Fukui said that the BOJ will cautiously adjust interest rates while maintaining accommodative monetary conditions.

"We will carefully analyze future economic data in order to seek a good chance for rate hikes," Fukui said.

The economy and prices continue to move as the central bank expected, Fukui said, adding that the BOJ doesn't need to change its economic outlook despite recent weak economic data.

He also said that it is too early to worry about capital spending overheating now.

But Fukui emphasized the need to closely watch for potential risks in the economy and corporate activity on the back of a continued accommodative monetary environment.

Regarding recent movements in foreign exchange markets, Fukui said, "The forex markets have recently moved slightly. We are always closely watching FX moves, including other financial markets, in managing monetary policy."

He added that foreign exchange rates are being influenced by an interest rate gap.

116,60-117,00 – strong resistance, wait for JPY data later this week

Idea: Watch resistance level, small short there with sl above 117,05-15 for 114,45 target.

USD-CHF

Strategy: Sell at 1,2160 sl 1,2195 tp 1,2060

Good Luck Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

Forex view

2006-11-21T19:50:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Short week, very tight range and light volume...

Stand aside or range-trade...

My E-mail readers recived good signals yesterday,
I wrote that if Euro-Usd will break range 1,2825-40 we should see 25-30 pips move :), after better than expected Us data yesterday, Eur-Usd broken down this range and we tested near 1,2800 level, also i took small long Usd-Chf yesterday, near 1,2400 i had small stop-profit...

Only GBP looks strong this week after better than expected Gbp data, but still below 1,9020-40 level...

Today:
weaker number from CAD pushed this pair near 1,15 level
im also watching jpy - hawkish BOJ minutes, but still dominate carry trade...
Looking to counter-trade EUR-JPY...

Strategy : Try to sell near 151,50 with tight sl at 151,70-75...

Good Luck Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

Forex view...

2006-11-16T21:07:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Very busy day today:

first better than expected UK retail sales, after this gbp-usd holds support near 1,8850 and we saw strong bounce twds 1,8910, failure break 1,8900 pushed pair back to 1,8870...

then us core inflation worst than expected,
eur-usd tested 1,2835-40 and gbp-usd tested strong 1,8930 region... still no clear direction while below this levels...

rest us data was in line with expectation and failure break resistance pushed eur and gbp vs usd on lower levels...

eur-usd quick back below 1,2800 suggest that tommorow we should see test 1,2770 again and even 1,2750

gbp-usd - quick back below 1,89000 suggest that we should see another test 1,8840-50 level and if will be break next 1,8780-8800

Trading idea:
Try to buy usd on dips during asia or early european session

Good Luck Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

Forex view

2006-11-15T16:22:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

EUR-USD - 1,2770 was tested after better than expected us data, eur is below 1,2800, for today wait for FED minutes, and if stay below 1,2800 could test 1,2770 and 1,2750 ahead tommorows us data, if will close above 1,2815 maybe near 1,2830 its could be good sign for eur bulls....

I had short earlier today from 1,2825, took profit at 1,2795

GBP-USD - strong sell-off after 1,8950 was taken out, 1,8845-55 support holds for now, expecting some bounce from this level, maybe another good chance for going short ( dovish comments from BOE ) gbp...?

My e-mails readers recived few good signals from mondayfor gbp...

Good Luck Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

Fx - ahead weekend

2006-11-10T10:28:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

Yesterday info from China oficials hurt long usd positions, my also…

It was not good week, but propably range will be break sooner than later…

Eur-Usd - looks strong, but first resistance near current level, buy on dips for 1,2940 - generally watch todays close , my longer term view for this pair could change if we close near 1,2940

Gbp-Usd - above 1,9140-45, look for 1,9225 soon, try long near 1,9100 level...
Change view while above 1,9140...

With rest stand aside , wait for next week

Good Luck
Piotr

Forex analysis...

2006-11-06T08:54:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders...

USD LOOKS STRONG AGAIN…

NFP data : The October unemployment rate dipped to its lowest level in over 5-years at 4.4%, with another bout of strong upward revisions to previous months' non-farm payrolls.

EUR-USD

50 dma – 1,2692
100 dma – 1,2706

Strong support – 1,2677

Resistance – 1,2730 then 1,2775-80

Range trading possible, watch daily close…., needs below 1,2675 for strong move down or above 1,2780-1,2800 for strong move up…

GBP-USD

20 dma – 1,8795
50 dma – 1,8838
100 dma – 1,8719

1,9100-45 was tested few times last week, but strong NFP number pushed pair lower below 1,9030 support ( now resistance ), structure is bearish at this moment, 1,8930-35 target possible…

Holding short position…

USD-JPY

20 dma – 118,55
50 dma – 117,77

Strong recovery during Friday’s us session, found resistance 118,15-40, needs to close above this level for move towards 118.80-119,00,

support 117,70-80…

Look to buy on dips if seen…

USD-CHF

Strong move above 1,2500 level suggest that 1,2580-1,2620 could be test soon, watch support at 1,2470-80…

Holding long position…

for more details send email to me...

Good Luck Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto

Forex view...

2006-10-30T13:27:00.000+01:00

Hello Traders,

EUR – USD – strong rally above 1,27 on Friday, should see resistance near 1,2770, support 1,2660, if we see 1,2765-70 first, try small short for pullback twds 1,2710 and then for 1,2660, on the other hand first move below 1,27 can be use for long….

Wait and watch…

GBP – USD – fighting with 1,9000-15 resistance now…

NOTE: if EUR-GBP support at 0,6685 holds we could see some profit taking from long GBP-USD

Wait and watch…

USD-JPY – 118 support was taken out, now we have some support near 117,30 below this level 116,70 then 116, resistance 117,70-118

NOTE: First Russia Central Bank, during Friday Swiss National Bank bought jpy, also tommorow BOJ rate decision

Strategy: buy JPY on a dip…

for more details send email to me...

Good Luck Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

FED - Rate Decision - Forex view....

2006-10-25T16:42:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders,

Clear direction after FED ? We will see...

ahead FED:

for example:

Long USD-CHF 1,2640-45 sl below 1,2610 tp 1,2740-45

NOTE: Daily close below 1,26 , usd bulls could be in a trouble

for more details send email to me...

Good Luck Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

GBP-USD - Forex view...

2006-10-24T16:31:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders,

GBP-USD

100 DMA - 1,8674

21 DMA - 1,8731

USD bulls have a big chances for SHS formation on a 4h and 1h chart, need to break and close below 100 DMA, which was tested today, after this test we saw strong bounce back above 1,8715,

but while prices are below 21 DMA, favor sell on a break todays low ( 1,8674 ) for minimum move 150 pips, sl above 1,8735...

Good Luck Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

Forex commentary

2006-10-23T12:02:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders,

GBP-USD

Rsistance from 1,8835 to 70, first support near 1,88 was taken out, next near 1,8760 (bull - trendline ), below this level next support 1,8690-8700, look to sell on rally,

on Friday: first took smal long with +15 pips, ahead of end Fridays session also took short from 1,8830 took profit today early morning at 1,8776-80…

EUR-CHF

23.10.06
Took profit from short on Friday + 60 pips, look to re-open near 1,59 with tight sl tp 1,5850-65…

EUR-PLN

Holding short position…, No change in view at this moment

20.10.06

Tokk some profits here ( 300 pips  ), sl for rest on entry point, target 3,75-76, look to sell on rally also

23.10.06

Holding rest short position….

More details ? Send email to me...

Good Luck and Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

Forex analysis...

2006-10-19T14:01:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders

EUR-USD

Mixed us data, ECB could make a pause on December…, 1,2500 support was tested again but still holds, below we have 200 DMA, , but during late us session eur backed above 1,2530. Today rise past 1,2550 suggest that 1,2575-80 – strong resistance will be tested… important today Phily FED Index…

Holding short add at 1,2575-80 with open target sl above 1,2620, only daily close above this level could change my view…

USD-JPY

118,00-35 looks like good support, but we need rise past 119,15-20 for possible move towds 120 and higher...

No change in view, yesterday resistance was tested, failure break pushed apir lower and support was tested on early european session…

Try small long near 118,40-50 with sl below 118,25…

GBP-USD

I exited yesterday from long at cost…

Today, worst than expected uk data and fall after this suggest that 1,8730-75 level is a good resistance, support starts at 1,8645-60, then 1,8610… important should be todays us data, also range 1,8660-1,8730-75 possible…

I took short and waiting for us data with sl above 75….

EUR-JPY

Holding short, but bulls still try back above 149,15-20, next resistance 149,45-60, daily close above this level could be dangerous for our short, watching for now….

USD-CHF

After us data 1,2740 resistance was tested again, failure break pushed pair lower, today after better than expected chf data , important support is testing at 1,2640, if holds another test 1,2740 possible, range trading

Long near support with tp above 1,2700 and very tight sl

USD-CAD

Low 1,1341, missing trade oportunity , my order was at 1,1340, at this moment i take out this order , watching, if 1,1320-40 holds, still possible 1,1450-60, looking to buy on dips prefer….

AUD-CAD
You can take some profits here at 0,8580-85, re-enter new on dips below 0,8500
No change in view….

CAD-JPY

Waiting for break to the downside….or range trading buy low sell high ( 103,70-104,00 – 106,00 )

USD-PLN

Rest of long was stopped at cost…look to re-buy on dips, watch daily close….

EUR-PLN

Holding short position…, No change in view at this moment

EUR-HUF

No change in view…If You are short be ready to take some profits here 262,80-263,20, bulls could find support here as a lower band of bear channel…sl for rest on entry point…

USD-HUF

Long with tight sl was stopped out, short was opened after 212 was broken and was closed at 211,80 ( with small profit )… stand aside at this moment , watch todays close, pair back above 212 and rise higher possible… ( 16.10 )

19.10.06
Stand aside at this moment, wait for us data…

EUR-CAD

No change in view…

GBP-CAD

If You are long from yesterday can take some profits here at 2,1320-30… ( near 100 pips profit  )

19.10.06
Rest our long was stopped at cost, stand aside at this moment

USD-THB

No change in view…

USD-CZK

22,200-400 – try to buy on dips…..with tight sl, first target 22,700-800

USD-HKD

Stand aside…

EUR-CHF

1,5966 and 1,5964, double top possible on a daily, waiting for confirmation, first good support 1,5850,
maybe small short near 1,5915-30 for 1,5850-60 with tight sl above 1,5965

19.10.06
You can to take part profit here at 1,5895, put sl for rest on entry point

GBP-CHF

Up-trend still intact, need close above 2,3773 for move above 2,4000, support 2,3550 then near 2,3350-3400, strategy buy on dip for 2,4000 minimum target,
only move down from current level and daily close below 2,3400 could confirm double top on daily…

19.10.06
Worst than expected uk data, better than expected chf data… stand aside at this moment , no trade , wait for clearer direction, maybe sell on rally for target 2,34 ? watching at this moment….

USD-MXN

No change in view…

USD-HRK

Missing trade opportunity…stand aside at this moment or try to catch small long on dips…

USD-DKK

Break to the upside still possible…watch daily close…

EUR-GBP

EURO-STG TECHS: 5, 21 & 55-day Moving Average's Confirm "Dead-Cross"; very bearish but… yes but todays uk data could be a key for bulls to holds supports….

Good Luck and Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

Forex analysis...18.10

2006-10-18T14:33:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders

EUR-USD

No change in view… waiting for US data…

USD-JPY

118,00-35 looks like good support, but we need rise past 119,15-20 for possible move towds 120 and higher...

Closed yesterdays long with 11 pips profit…

NOTE. longer-term players using Tuesday's dip in New
York to add to dollar longs, Japanese names also noted buyers on this
morning's dip ahead of what is described as key support at Y118.30. This
was the breakout point post US payrolls two weeks ago. Stops are placed
under there ahead of tech support at Y118.00. Japanese stops underneath
ahead of tech support at Y117.45. Good offers are seen at Y118.70/80.

GBP-USD

is on course to completing double-bottom at $1.8520/25
target $1.8755 at $1.8520. However, risks seen skewed on further squeeze
higher to $1.8795/1.8800 -- the 50.0% of $1.8520 to $1.9070 & spike high
US payroll data. The fast 10-day momentum study is showing
bull-divergence signal and daily slow-stochastic recovering from o/sold.

Small long from 1,8710 with tight sl near 1,8680 first target 1,8760…

NOTE: Todays UK data was not good but gbp did not want to fall thats why im long...

EUR-JPY

Low 148,48, possible fall towds 148,30 then 147,80 and 146, resistance start 148,90-149,10 next 149,35-50…

Took profits yesterdy at 148,75, re-entered short at 149,10 for first 148,30, You can try to take short near 148,90-149,10 for 148,30 first target…

USD-CHF

As i wrote yesterday i prefer long positions, but now better to wait for us data and for reaction after…

If You are long exit here at 1,2680 and waiting…

USD-CAD

No change in view…buy on dips…

AUD-CAD

You can take some profits here at 0,8580-85, re-enter new on dips below 0,8500

CAD-JPY

Took part profit from short ( fx news -16.10 ) at 104 for rest sl on entry level…

USD-PLN

IF You are long take some profits here at 3,1100-20, put sl for rest on entry, look to re-buy on dips…

EUR-PLN

Holding short position…

EUR-HUF

No change in view…

USD-HUF

Long with tight sl was stopped out, short was opened after 212 was broken and was closed at 211,80 ( with small profit )… stand aside at this moment , watch todays close, pair back above 212 and rise higher possible… ( 16.10 )

EUR-CAD

No change in view…

GBP-CAD

If You are long from yesterday can take some profits here at 2,1320-30… ( near 100 pips profit  )

USD-THB

No change in view…

USD-CZK

22,200-400 – try to buy on dips…..with tight sl, first target 22,700-800

USD-HKD

Stand aside…

EUR-CHF

1,5966 and 1,5964, double top possible on a daily, waiting for confirmation, first good support 1,5850,
maybe smal short near 1,5915-30 for 1,5850-60 with tight sl above 1,5965

GBP-CHF

Up-trend still intact, need close above 2,3773 for move above 2,4000, support 2,3550 then near 2,3350-3400, strategy buy on dip for 2,4000 minimum target,
only move down from current level and daily close below 2,3400 could confirm double top on daily…

USD-MXN

No change in view…

USD-HRK

Missing trade opportunity…stand aside at this moment or try to catch small long on dips…

USD-DKK

Break to the upside still possible…watch daily close…

Good Luck and Good Trade
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

Forex analysis...

2006-10-17T14:15:00.000+02:00

EUR-USD –

Still above 200 DMA, but below 1,2580-2620, important could be ZEW and more important US data…, at this moment till us data propably 1,2485-1,2560-80 range, clear direction we should see after US data, prefer sell on rally…

NOTE :

EUR is also on strong underpressure from GBP and JPY, it also could help usd bulls

GBP-USD –

Potential double-bottom at $1.8520 triggered on a break
above $1.8637 -- targets measured move to $1.8755. However, there are
some key interim resistance levels at $1.8650 Fibonacci levels, the
100-day moving average at $1.8675 & $1.8700 -- 50.0% of US payroll
high to $1.8520 low. The daily slow-stochastics are crossing bullishly.

NOTE: GBP supported from UK DATA

USD-JPY –

Below 119,00, support 118,65, while holds still possible rise twds 120 and higher, below this support next target 118,00…

Try Very small long at 118,65 with sl at 52…

NOTE: Remember Bank Of Russia said yesterday that will start to buy jpy…

EUR-JPY –

Slips through strong tech support at Y149.00 as dollar-yen
stops are triggered. More stops noted down to Y148.80 ; below target 148,30-35

Still holding short positions…

USD-CHF –

While above 1,2660 prefer long positions with sl below 1,2620…

USD-CAD

Important BOC rate decision and commentary after this,
no rate hike and oil prices below 60usd could hurt cad in mid and longer term,

try to very small long on dips at 1,1320 if seen for 1,17 with tight sl ahead rate decision….

AUD-CAD

If You’re long sl move on entry point ahead of BOC rate decision, if position will close re-enter again on dip…

USD-PLN

At this moment still prefer buing on dip ( 3,08 ), important could be us data later today, below 3,08 watch for 3,05, first resistance near 3,14 above target 3,20 and higher, political problems in Poland could help usd bulls…

EUR-PLN

SHS formation on daily, trading below 200 dma, prefer sell on any rally first target 3,75, selling area 3,8870-3,8900 ( back to the line )…

EUR-HUF

Strong support near 270 was taken out, now bears have situation under control while pair is below 200 DMA…( 265,93 ), if we will see daily close below 200 DMA today next possible target even 260…, close above could push pair higher twds 270 but propably it will be only correction ahead of next move down…watching

EUR-CAD

Trdaing above 200 DMA at 1,4104, resistance first at 1,4350 next 1,45, important today BOC rate decision , also watching oil prices, stand aside at this moment….

NOTE: propably bettr to going long GBP-CAD with first target 2,15 and next 2,20 further out.

USD-THB

Usd bulls fighting with 37,400-500 resistance, support start near 37,120, long shoul be open only when we will see daily close above resistance…

USD-CZK

Looking to buy, watch weekly close… buying area 21,900-22,200 or above resistance 22,760

USD-HKD

Support near 7,7850 was taken out, next 7,7778 ( 38,2% Fibo ) and 7,7725 ( 50 % Fibo ) from 7,7510 – 7,7946 up-trend, stand aside, watch all asian currency…

NOTE: maybe better to buy asia vs european , waiting for clear signals…

GOOD LUCK and GOOD TRADE
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

Forex analysis...

2006-10-16T12:10:00.000+02:00

EUR-USD

EUR - while above 1,2475-80 ( 200 dma ) possible rise twds 1,2580-1,2620, below 1,2475 possible 1,2350 target, stand aside at this moment…

No positions

GBP-USD

Resistance near 1,8620-40, support 1,8510-30, try to sell on rally twds 1,8640-60 for 1,8510-30 for half position and 1,8250 further out.

No positions

USD-JPY

Technically still prefer long while 118,60 and 119,20 holds, but after today’s commentary from Russia Central bank, we could see stronger correction, wait and watch…

No positions…

EUR-JPY

Bearish bias while below 150,25-75 level ( basis on a daily close ), strong support near 149, but in my opinion after Russia Central Bank commentary, could be broken very easy, targets 148,35-50 then 146…

Holding short positions avg. 149,28 for 148,50 first and 146 second target…

CAD-JPY

Consolidation 104,00-106,00, daily close below 104 is needed to move down twds 200 dma at 102,50, while oil prices below 60 usd bigger chances for bears, sell rally for move down first target 104,00 second 102,50,

no positions

In my opinion today better to wait for Bernanke for Yellen and for Poole , watch daily close, eventually small jpy long positions vs. Eur,cad,chf….

GOOD LUCK and GOOD TRADE
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

Forex analysis...

2006-10-12T11:24:00.000+02:00

EUR-USD –

New low yesterday at 1,2501 after FOMC , strong bounce back today but at this moment still favor short positions…
Selling area 1,2575-90 and above 1,2610, sl above 1,2640-50 for 1,2460-80,
Important US Trade Balance today….

Currently short from 1,2545…

GBP-USD –

Pair now trying to back above 1,8600-15, next resistance near 1,8635-60 also looks good for short…
Short from 1,8524 was stopped out…

Holding short from 1,8565, will add near 1,8645

USD-JPY-

As I wrote yestrday, correction possible…but still favor long positions… level to buy 119,25-30 or 118,60-85…

USD-CAD-

As I wrote yesterday, bullish for 1,14 while above 1,1320, max today 1,1384, if You’re long try to take profit here at 1,1360 or put sl on entry level…

Fundamental:
The Canadian dollar was down
versus the greenback on Wednesday as another slide in commodity
prices weighed on the currency, which could drift further given
the lack of any key domestic data...

USD-CHF – look to buy on dips 1,2630-50 for 1,2780-2800

AUD-USD –

Good demand noted this morning for topside Aussie calls after
strong employment data overnight. Traders note stops at $0.7485 and
$0.7495.

200 DMA at 0,7478, now we are above this level…

Bearish below 0,7440-50, bullish above 0,7500, still watching

NZD-CHF-

Current 0,8362 … testing 50% fall from 0,9448 to 0,7375…
200 DMA below 0,81, also good support at 0,8100 ( trendline ), watching…

USD-CZK-

Very interesting situation, long term downtrend-line on daily chart is underpressure, daily close above could be very bullish, on the other hand consolidation 21,7000-22,6000 also possible…

USD-DKK-

Consolidation 5,7500-5,9500, supoort 5,85 then 5,80, also range –break to the upside possible…

USD-HRK –

Look to buy again on dip 5,85-5,86 for minimum 5,94-95…and for 6 and above later..

USD-HUF-

HUF is a stronger than we expected at this moment range-break to the downside possible, watch support near 212,00, speculative traders can to take long here ( 212,50 ) with tight sl below 212 for move minimum 216, daily close below 212, we will have bigger chances for back to 208…

USD-MXN –

Watch support 10,9200-9500, resistance 11,1000, bigger chances at this moment for bears

USD-PLN -

If You are still long, You can take some profits here 3,1215-25 for rest put sl on entry level tp 3,14, look to buy on dips again…or on break to the upside

More details about other currency than majors after weekend

GOOD LUCK and GOOD TRADE
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

Forex analysis...

2006-10-11T10:37:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders...

as I wrote earlier , dont want to trade against usd...

still prefer tarde from long usd side...

EUR-USD – possible 1,2460-80 target , trade from short side, selling area: 1,2575 and 1,2610-15 sl above 1,2640, important for next direction could be FOMC meeting later today….

Currently short from 1,2545…

GBP-USD – range 1,86-1,91 was broken yesterday, trade from short side, even 1,8250 or 1,81 target possible, i took small short when i saw new low today with tight sl, if not hold will try to sell againnear 1,86….

Short 1,8524 ….

USD-JPY – bulls have situation under control , correction possible, prefer strategy buy on dips near 119,25 or 118,85….

No positions…

USD-CAD – bullish above 1,1300-20 for move minimum 1,1400, weaker oil prices should hurt CAD… trade from long side…

No positions…

AUD-USD – aud is relatively strong ahead Stevens speech at 10.05 gmt today, propably clear direction we will see after this… range 0,7410-0,7465…, below 0,7410 possible 0,7350-70 and lower.. waiting for Stevens, watching gold prices…

No positions….

USD-CHF – look to buy on dips 1,2630-50 for 1,2780-2800

No positions…

good luck
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

Forex - Ahead NFP data

2006-10-06T09:10:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders,

Most important today:
US NFP data

What we could see after?

In my opinion every number above 120.000-150.000 should push usd on higher levels and 1,2450-1,2500 will be on the cards,

but what could happen if number will be below 100.000?

we could see usd sell-off, ok, but how long? to 1,2740 or 1,2800 and after this another round of buing usd?

Propably number below 50.000 will see strong sell-off usd on the boards...

At this moment dont want to trade against usd, propably better to put sell order eur-usd ahead NFP, maybe will see surprise number?

Good Luck
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

------------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.
WARNING !!
Visitors should be aware that Foreign Exchange transactions and trading are or can be subject to laws, rules and regulations of the country in which the entity undertaking the transactions is situated. It is incumbent upon the Visitors to keep themselves informed and abreast of the Laws they are (or would be expected to be) subject to and governed by, and act in accordance thereto.

Forex commentary

2006-10-04T09:27:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders,

Today:
EUR - PMI and Retail Sales
GBP - PMI
USD - ISM - Non Manufacturing an Bernanke speech !!!

EUR-USD - 200 day ma - 1,2449, 100 dma - 1,2735 and 50 dma - 1,2768, need to close above 50&100 dma to keep bulls alive :), earlier commentary still valid,

GBP-USD - GBP-USD - 200 dma - 1,8183, 100 dma - 1,8684 and 50 dma - 1,8870 ( note: 200 ma on 4hour chart is near 1,8880 ) - is possible that BOE will rise rate tommorow by another 25 bps, try to trade from long side till rate decision with tight sl...

USD-CAD - 200 dma - 1,1328, 100 dma - 1,1185 and 50 dma - 1,1189, while above 50 & 100 dma positive outlook, also oil could hurt CAD...

Good Luck
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

Forex - Us session

2006-09-26T20:24:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders,

USD is stronger from Monday after better than expected us data ( on Monday and Tuesday...)

EUR-USD - As I wrote earlier... usd needs a time :)...
In my opinion, If You have short EUR-USD, You can to take some profits here
1,2675-90, and try rebuild near 1,2740 or below 1,2630 ( last double bottom )for first target 1,2560 and 1,2460-80 later... Move above 1,2740-60 could change short term view, long term view will be change above 1,2940-80....

All in all usd bulls are back ....

Tommorow important :

CHF - KOF

GBP - GDP & C/A, later CBI

USD - Durable Goods Orders & New Home Sales

Good Luck
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

Forex - pre Asia open

2006-09-21T22:41:00.001+02:00

Hello Traders,

USD lost ground today after bad numbers ( Leading Indicator and Phily FED ) also negative for greenback are things with China ( protctionizm )..., so i need change some my positive view for usd...

EUR-USD - i wrote yestrday after FOMC, that im usd bulls as long as 1,2980 resistance will hold, propably we have good levels for build new usd longs positions, i wrote yesterday that below 1,2750-80 bigger chances have bears, all propably, at this moment a need to change some my view... better to wait till tommorow...

Note: watching cad,chf and jpy...

Good Luck
Piotr

p.s.
If You have to recive all details ( commentary, analysis, trading strategy, any alerts ) simple send email to me: piotr.wilczynski@finexo.de,
when You send e-mail to me it's mean You also agree to recive info about fx-brokers,
and remember Your e-mail adress will stay only in my base. If You will have remove from my database simply sent blank email to me.

Forex - pre Asia open

2006-09-21T22:41:00.000+02:00

Forex - after FOMC

2006-09-20T21:24:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders,

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate steady for a second straight meeting, biding time to assess whether cooling economic growth will curb price pressures.

Some traders said that is dovish some that is hawkish.....

In my opinion....

EUR-USD - all after FOMC was fully in price, no surprise..... so why usd will be stronger in my opinion?
1. Technically, while below 1,2750-80 , bigger chances for bears
2. OIL drop to 60 usd from the long time, it could help us economy, not only inflation could be main driver for usd....
3. Carry Trade....

My Long Term View - while below 1,2980 possible target is even below 1,2000 till the end of the year, i will change my view on daily close above this level....

good luck

Forex - pre-Asia open

2006-09-18T22:33:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders,

tommorow:
EUR - German PPi and ZEW index
CAD - CPI
USD - PPI and Housing Starts and building permits

GBP-CHF - see daily chart below

after week...

2006-09-16T12:07:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders...

EUR-USD - as i wrote in my last post, bigger chances had bears, during fridays session we saw new low at 1,2629, but earlier ( Thursday evning ) we had stop hunting near 1,2735-50 area...all in all next week we have a chance for test 1,2555-80 level....

GBP-USD - thursday evning pair touched 61,8% from last fall, but friday pair back under 1,8800 level and tested 1,8755-70 support, strong resistance near 1,8900-25, but i expect another test 1,8600 early next week...

USD-JPY - support at 117,30 looks very strong, also we have very strong resistance ( long term downtrend line ) near 118,30-60, also during this week G-7 meeting... very interesting is where we will open after G-7

good luck

morning edition

2006-09-14T10:30:00.000+02:00

...and after vacation...

Hello traders,

im back in after vacation and...

EUR-USD - today need to break 1,2715-35 or 1,2650-60 for clear direction, bears have bigger chances at this moment...

GBP-USD - till 1,8810 should name only correction abovethis level bears could be under-pressure, after i watched chart early morning i still see a chance for another test 1,86 level this week

USD-JPY - strong resistance comming near 118,30-60, long term down-trend line, support 117,30-40.... above resistance big target is 140 as i wrote earlier...

good luck

vacation from 28.08....till....we will see

2006-09-07T17:55:00.000+02:00

some vacation - propably till 09.09.2006

fx commentary

2006-08-28T18:02:00.000+02:00

Hello Traders,

We had not any storm after Bernanke, simly He said nothing about future FED policy
USD was stronger but after huragan alert some traders closed their long usd positions ahead weekend

Today GBP markets was closed so we saw thin trade during european session..

EUR-USD - breaking minor resistance at 1,2775 ( now support ) and bace above 1,28 but failure 1,2820 pushed eur down again, now testing 1,2775 support area, flip-flop market but im still short...

USD-JPY - support near 116,80, if holds potential target 117,80 ( still below long term downtrend-line... )

im watching also usd-cad and gbp-usd at this moment

good luck

for more details:
wilpi@wp.pl

fx market

2006-08-25T15:38:00.000+02:00

hello,

we have calm before storm at this moment....

Bernanke today...

yesterday...

eur-usd - worst than expected us data but usd holds ground, my small longs was stopped at cost,

usd looks strong, all bad news is fully in price in my opinion, we will see eur-usd below 1,2700 and lower very soon but.... Bernanke today...

all in all i took again small short...

usd-jpy - worst than expected jpy data, jpy strong sell-off, i took yesterday another long at 116,35 with 117,15 target, it was good call,

pair is near long term downtrend line, if this line will be taken out long term target could be even 140...

eur-cad - long was stopped :(

all in all buy usd on dips should work well...

for more details
wilpi@wp.pl

fx market

2006-08-24T11:25:00.000+02:00

hello traders,

todays ifo index supported eur,

later important us data...

eur-usd - during asia session tested 1,2760, but after ifo pair taken out resista at 1,2790 and 1,2815, next at 1,2850 should be tested, next direction we will see propably after us data,

i took small longs, sl at this moment i have on entry....

usd-jpy - tried to take 116,50, but this level still holds, i took small profit from longs....

usd-cad - longs was stopped out after inflation data, stand aside...

gbp-usd - while 1,8870 holds still prefer longs, first resistance 1,8945...
two things:
1. if todays us data will be worst....
2. and tommorow gbp data will be ok...

we should see big up move...prepare to long....

eur-cad - i took small longs, double bottom on 1 h chart....

good luck

for more details
wilpi@wp.pl

commentary

2006-08-22T12:52:00.000+02:00

hello,

eur - worst than expected data...current level 1,2835, take profit here from short...

usd-jpy - short was stopped , now holding long....

usd-cad - holding long ... wait for cpi data...

eur-jpy - short from 140 was stopped out, i took short again at 149,50, and took profit here at 149,10

good luck

commentary

2006-08-21T11:51:00.000+02:00

hello traders,

important this week:

mon:
chf - ppi
eur - trade balance
cad - retail sales

tue:
chf - trade balance
eur - c/a , zew index and industrial orders
cad - cpi
jpy - trade balance

wed:
nzd - trade balance

thu:
aud - house prices
chf - employment
eur - ifo index
us - durable good orders and new home sales
jpy - cpi

fri:
gbp - gdp

usd softer during asian session and european session but:

usd-jpy - testing support at 115,50 below this 115,20 and 114,70, very strong resistance 115,90 - 116,20 region...
trading idea: sell at 115,85 s&r 116,30 tp 115,20 ( for eventual long 117,30 )

eur-usd - 1,2900-15 strong resistance... above 1,2970 possible
holding short with sl above resistance and open tp....

eur-jpy - eur looks strong today , tested 149,10 level but...
some profit taking from long we could see ahead eur and jpy data later this week...

trading idea: counter trend short near 149 tight sl above 149,20...

cad - watch todays data, if will be worst than expected sell cad ahead tommorow cpi data

good luck, good trades

commentary

2006-08-15T13:53:00.000+02:00

hello all....

covering all usd longs here...

eur-usd at 1,2726

gbp-usd - part here at 1,8877 sl for rest at 1,8960

usd-jpy - part here 116,55 sl for rest at 115,55

watch todays us data , should be imortant and should to show clear directions...

in my opinion usd should holds ground here...and should be stronger for the rest of the year....

good luck

good trades

contact with me

2006-08-08T20:06:00.000+02:00

for more details and commentary write to me:

wilpi@wp.pl

ahead fomc

2006-08-08T19:56:00.000+02:00

hello,
after weaker nfp number, usd was strong sell-off during friday, some recovery yesterday and today, what next?

hard to say, but dovish commentary could push usd on lower levels, but commentary propably will be hawkish - watch higher oil prices - all in all even if not rate hike today we could see stronger usd....

i will place entry buy usd orders and entry stop buy usd orders ...

good luck

commentary

2006-08-03T12:47:00.000+02:00

hello,

important today:
boe and ecb rate decision
us ism

usd-jpy - double bottom possible, but we need to see pair above 115,30-40...

eur-usd - Trichet commentary will be important , i expect less hawkish...eur-usd should break support at 1,2700-30 for 1,2660 min and lower...

eur-aud - i will try to sell again if seen 1,6820-50 .....

eur-gbp - support at 0,6810 is under pressure, below this 0,6750 target , resist. near 0,6845

good luck

commentary

2006-07-31T11:21:00.000+02:00

i was little vacation.... :-)

eur-usd - 1,2775 looks strong at this moment and propably we could see some correction towards 1,2715 even 1,2670, below this bulls could lost momentum and fall towards 1,2500 and lower possible...

gbp-usd - resistance 1,8660-80 above this 1,8760 and higher towards 1,8900, support starts 1,8620 than 1,8600 and near 1,8575...

jpy - looks stronger , propably buy jy on dips should work well,

important this week:
rba,boe,ecb rate decision and us nfp

good luck

commentary

2006-07-20T11:25:00.000+02:00

Bernanke dovish....usd down....
my positions was stopped out ( i had tight sl ),

but, last time when Bernanke was dovish usd also has fallen for only one day, could be the same thios time ?

we will see today after fomc minutes raport
im watching and if i will see any sign of usd strong i will buy again usd...

good luck and be carefull...

us data...

2006-07-19T15:29:00.000+02:00

hello,
another better than expected us data, inflation pressure,
i sold eur-usd with tight sl, above todays range and now im waiting for bernanke

Dear traders please be carefull with Yours positions ...

good luck

raport

2006-07-19T10:37:00.000+02:00

hello,

important today:
inflation and Bernanke

eur-usd - 1,2475 still hold, looks good at this moment, below this target 1,2440, resistance 1,2515 next 1,2560, in my opinion good idea is wait for data....

note: daily and weekly close below 1,2475 will be negative for eur bulls and could be sell signal for longer term

all in all we should see direction after Bernanke...

good luck

commentary

2006-07-18T17:39:00.000+02:00

i took good profits from long usd....

watch todays close

commentary

2006-07-18T15:38:00.000+02:00

after better than expected us data im:

short eur-usd and gbp-usd and nzd-usd and aud-usd

good luck

18.07 - commentary

2006-07-18T10:46:00.000+02:00

hello,

eur-usd - index zew for a few minutes...bounce after yesterday´s fall touch 2546 so i expect another fall below 1,2505, first target 1,2475-85, eur is underpressure also from eur-gbp and could be from eur-jpy, iof resistance at 146,80-147,20 holds,

gbp-usd - better than expected cpi data from gbp, stand aside at this moment

usd-cad - resistance at 1,1345-50 was taken out, first target 1,14 next near 1,16

aud-usd - while below 0,7525 i think about short position.....

good luck

17.07 - eur

2006-07-17T14:41:00.000+02:00

eur-usd important support 1,2505 , below this possible fall towards 1,2300, resistance now 1,2560-80,

eur-jpy - still resistance 146,80-147,12-25, fall towards 146,20 possible...

good luck

17.07 - usd looks stronger ...

2006-07-17T13:14:00.000+02:00

usd looks stronger ahead Bernanke, us inflation and FOMC minutes, propably buy usd on dips strategy still should work...

im waiting for better levels to buy usd....

17.07 - important this week

2006-07-17T12:18:00.000+02:00

Monday

EUR - euro-zone CPI

CAD - international securities transactions

GBP - RICS price house balance

JPY - tertiary industry index

Tu

CHF - adjusted retail sales

GBP - CPI

EUR - ZEW index

USD -PPI and net foreign securities purchases

Wed

JPY - machine tool orders

EUR - trade balance

USD - CPI and housing starts and building permits

!!! USD - BERNANKE 16.00 gmt !!!

CAD - löeading indicators

Thu

JPY - BOJ minutes

CHF - trader balance and PPI

GBP - retail sales

!!! USD - BERNANKE !!!

USD - leading indicators and philly fed

!!! USD - FOMC minutes !!! 18.00 gmt

Friday

AUD - import export price index

GBP - GDP

CAD - CPI

!!! trading signals !!!

2006-07-17T12:14:00.000+02:00

gbp-usd close 1,8208

wait for better levels to re-open

also if You have short eur-usd take some profits here 1,2530 ( 1\2505-25 looks strong at this moment )

and if You have long usd\cad aloso better to exit here1,1338

13.07 - EUR/USD

2006-07-13T16:44:00.000+02:00

while below 1,2730 still a chance for break 1,2670/80, play from the short side at this moment...

!!! trading signals !!!

2006-07-13T15:53:00.000+02:00

exit eur/usd 1,2708 ( opened 1,2710 )

!!! trading signals !!!

2006-07-13T15:01:00.000+02:00

short gbp/usd was stopped out

sell again 1,8430 sl 1,8490

13.07 - USD/CAD

2006-07-13T14:15:00.000+02:00

pair stay well above 1,1250/75 support, now 1,1321, first target near 1,1400....
propably buy here and lower if seen for 1,1400 min and 1,1600 weeks ahead...

good luck

!!! trading signal !!!

2006-07-13T13:37:00.000+02:00

i took profit from long usd/jpy at 115,43

and try to re-open again....

on the other hand you can to hold this position because sl is on entry...watch 115,70

!!! trading signals !!!

2006-07-13T13:04:00.000+02:00

usd/jpy - move sl for long on entry

eur/usd - move sl for short to 1,2735

13.07 - GBP/USD

2006-07-13T12:37:00.000+02:00

while below 1,8415 still a chance for fall towards 1,8230/50 but at this moment gbp is supported from eur/gbp ( now testing 0,6900 ), first support near 1,8370, in my opinion first eur/usd need to fall below 1,2670 then we could see fall gbp/usd below 1,8370 and lower....

good luck

!!! trading signal !!!

2006-07-13T12:16:00.000+02:00

exit gbp/jpy 212,06

!!! trading signal !!!

2006-07-13T11:36:00.000+02:00

buy usd/jpy 115.20 sl 114,50

!!! trading signal !!!

2006-07-13T11:17:00.000+02:00

close eur/jpy at 146,30, wait for better level to re-open

13.07 - GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY

2006-07-13T10:38:00.000+02:00

gbp/jpy - found resistance near 211,95-212,00 ( falling trendline 213,65 - 18.06 and 212,48 - 04.07 ), first support 211,10/20 on hourly charts, then 210,80, holding short...

eur/jpy - found strong resistance at 146,82 ( 76,4% last fall ), on hourly charts double top formation while below 146,47, holding short

good luck

!!! trading signals !!!

2006-07-13T10:00:00.000+02:00

jpy looks stronger ahead boj...

sell gbp/jpy 211,80 sl 212,15

sell eur/jpy 146,50 sl 146,85

also holding long usd vs eur and gbp

!!! trading alerts !!!

2006-07-12T14:48:00.000+02:00

sell eur-usd 1,2710 sl 1,2760 tp near 1,2570-1,2620

sell gbp-usd 1,8370 sl 1,8430 tp open

12.07 - USD AND CAD

2006-07-12T12:26:00.000+02:00

important today:

us trade balance...

cad - propably time to take profits from cad shorts here....eur 1,4460, usd 1,1350, wait for better levels to re-open...

eur-usd - short should work well while below 1,2790, potential target 1,2655 first, but in my opinion better to wait for the number....

usd-jpy - while above 114,40 possible 114,90 target

be carefull, in my opinion better to wait and eventually take some fast profits after the number

good luck

11.07 - USD & CAD

2006-07-11T14:14:00.000+02:00

hello,

important today

cad rate decision

eurusd - while below 1,2760 bullish scenario is underpressure, below 1,2710 this scenario will be cancel, wait for the number....

cad - Doge said that rate hike depend on nfp number, we had weaker number, so....propably sell cad after decision.....

good luck

CALENDAR

2006-07-10T11:59:00.000+02:00

important this week:

tue:
jpy - consumer confidence

gbp - trade balance

cad - BOC rate decision

wed:
gbp - unemployment

eur - eurozone GDP

usd - trade balance

cad - tic data

nzd - retail sales

jpy - current account & trade balance

thu:
aud:
unemployment

jpy - industrial production

fri:
jpy - boj

aud - trade balance

usd - michigan and advance retail sales

good luck