remember end of the month today, smoe profit taking possible,
better to stand aside, have a nice weekend to all :)
Friday, June 30, 2006
30.06 - AFTER RATE DECISION...
another 0,25 hike and more if need, but usd weaker trapped ? or we will see eur/usd 1,3000 again?
weekend ahead i closed all positions, aud/usd was stopped, rest with profit :)
propably today stand aside or :
watch resistance 1,2730 eur/usd support 1,2690 then 1,2650
in my opinion better buy above resistance for 1,2760 first and 1,2800 ( could be today )
gbp/usd maybe good for short above 1,8400/20
look to sell eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, aud/jpy and chf/jpy
weekend ahead i closed all positions, aud/usd was stopped, rest with profit :)
propably today stand aside or :
watch resistance 1,2730 eur/usd support 1,2690 then 1,2650
in my opinion better buy above resistance for 1,2760 first and 1,2800 ( could be today )
gbp/usd maybe good for short above 1,8400/20
look to sell eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, aud/jpy and chf/jpy
Thursday, June 29, 2006
29.06 - FOMC & !!! trading signal !!!
i belive today rate decision + statement will be important for next direction,
what Mr. Bernanke will say and how will understand this traders ?
eur/usd : sell below 1,2500 or buy above 1,2615/25
gbp/usd : sell below 1,8100 or buy above 1,8190 better above 1,8260
usd/chf : sell below 1,2400/20 or buy above 1,2500/20
also i took short aud/usd 0,7315 sl 0,7385 tp open, when 0,7270 will be broken move sl down at 0,7330
what Mr. Bernanke will say and how will understand this traders ?
eur/usd : sell below 1,2500 or buy above 1,2615/25
gbp/usd : sell below 1,8100 or buy above 1,8190 better above 1,8260
usd/chf : sell below 1,2400/20 or buy above 1,2500/20
also i took short aud/usd 0,7315 sl 0,7385 tp open, when 0,7270 will be broken move sl down at 0,7330
29.06 - USD/CAD
support 1,1160/80 should holds for another test 1,1240/60 and higher above 1,1300, on the other hand fall below support next target near 1,1120 and lower ( in my opinion little chance for this move lower at this moment, wait for cad data and us data later today and fomc meeting )
!!! trading signal !!!
sell gbp/usd 1,8150 sl 1,8270 tp 1,7950
after BOE governor M. King speech..... - low inflation and steady growth
after BOE governor M. King speech..... - low inflation and steady growth
29.06 - GBP/USD
while below 1,8195 bigger chance for test yesterday's low, if break next target 1,8050/70, on the other hand rise past 1,8195 we could see 1,8236 or even 1,8260/70,
watch reaction after fed rate decision...
watch reaction after fed rate decision...
29.06 - EUR/USD
while below 1,2585/2620 we should see another test 1,2480/2500, below this level 1,2320/50... trading idea - try short near 1,2585/2620 with stop & reverse abov this level, first target 1,2480/2500, second 1,2320/50, good luck
29.06 - JPY
weaker data but jpy could be stronger ahead tankan index....
usd/jpy - strong resistance 116,70 above 117,00/20, support starts at 116,30
usd/jpy - strong resistance 116,70 above 117,00/20, support starts at 116,30
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
28.06 - FOMC
wait for tommorow rate decision,
eur/usd - while above 1,2470/80 still a chance for rise towards 1,2600,
stand aside at this moment......
eur/usd - while above 1,2470/80 still a chance for rise towards 1,2600,
stand aside at this moment......
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
!!! trading signal !!!
close eur/jpy 146,20 , we try to get new position after us data or after jpy data ....
27.06 - USD
usd looks stronger again while
- eur/usd below 1,2618 target 1,2550 below 1,2500 and 1,2480, look to sell
-gbp/usd while below 1,8260 target 1,8180 below 1,8120, look to sell more below 1,8180
- usd/jpy range break ? propably yes target 117,20 and higher
- eur/usd below 1,2618 target 1,2550 below 1,2500 and 1,2480, look to sell
-gbp/usd while below 1,8260 target 1,8180 below 1,8120, look to sell more below 1,8180
- usd/jpy range break ? propably yes target 117,20 and higher
!!! trading signal !!!
usd/cad - close here 1,1240 or sl move on entry and wait for break resistance ....
Monday, June 26, 2006
Economic data - 26.06 - 1.07.
Mon
Eur - German CPI
Chf - Adjusted Retail Sales
Eur - Eurozone C/A
Usd - New home sales
Tu
Eur - Ifo
Usd - Consumer confiedence
Nzd - Trade Balance
Wed
Chf - Kof leading indicator
Usd - Fomc 2-day meeting begins
Jpy - Trade Balance
Thu
Chf - Cpi
Gbp- Nationwide House prices
Eur - Grman unemployment rate
Eur - French GDP
Usd - Gdp annualized
Cad - Gdp
Usd - Rate decision
Fri
Gbp - Gdp
Usd - Personal income
Usd - Personal Spending
Usd - Michigan sentiment
Eur - German CPI
Chf - Adjusted Retail Sales
Eur - Eurozone C/A
Usd - New home sales
Tu
Eur - Ifo
Usd - Consumer confiedence
Nzd - Trade Balance
Wed
Chf - Kof leading indicator
Usd - Fomc 2-day meeting begins
Jpy - Trade Balance
Thu
Chf - Cpi
Gbp- Nationwide House prices
Eur - Grman unemployment rate
Eur - French GDP
Usd - Gdp annualized
Cad - Gdp
Usd - Rate decision
Fri
Gbp - Gdp
Usd - Personal income
Usd - Personal Spending
Usd - Michigan sentiment
Friday, June 23, 2006
23.06 - EUR/USD
eur/usd 1,2530 support was taken out, be carefull with 1,2488 level....propably better to wait for break
23.06 - AUD/USD
while support at 0,7300/10 holds, possible bounce towards 0,7350...trading idea sell rally or break, target 0,7250/70
23.06 - EUR/USD & USD/JPY
If usd/jpy will try to get 116,30 today , eur/usd should be on strong underpressure and if will support at 1,2530 break next target 1,2450/80 watch....
Thursday, June 22, 2006
22.06 - USD/JPY
pair is trading above 200 dma, watch today's close, this could be very bullish signal with 121 target...
22.06 - USD
failure break 1,2660/70 resistance on eur/usd, strong sell-off from this level, 1,2600/20 support was taken out, watch 1,2530 if will be break potential 1,2375/2425, look to buy usd on dips
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
21.06 - usd/jpy
watch another test 114,50 ( if seen ), and if holds i will try to going long, resistance 115,05 at this moment
21.06 - fx commentary
eur/usd - strong support at 1,2480/1,2530 holds, daily close near 1,2600 suggest that we could see rise towards 1,2660 or even higher, but remember FED next week and we should see another test ( maybe break ) 1,2530.
usd/cad - wrong view yesterday, better than expected cad data, but today retail sales ( weaker number shuld help us ), holding long.....
usd/cad - wrong view yesterday, better than expected cad data, but today retail sales ( weaker number shuld help us ), holding long.....
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
20.06 - GBP
tommorow important BOE minutes - should show us next move
gbp/usd support 1,8370 , resistance 1,8435 then 1,8470 and 1,8505
gbp/usd support 1,8370 , resistance 1,8435 then 1,8470 and 1,8505
20.06.
watch market at this moment......
eur/usd - support at 1,2550 still holds, wait for break..... resitance near 1,2600 then 1,2620
eur/usd - support at 1,2550 still holds, wait for break..... resitance near 1,2600 then 1,2620
20.06 - EUR/USD
eur/usd is a strong underpressure from eur/jpy and eur/gbp ( also from eur/aud )....
holding short position.......
holding short position.......
!!! trading signal !!!
usd/cad place sl below 1,1160 ( better 1,1100 at this moment ), i expect we will see sell cad after todays cad data...
20.06 - FOREX COMMENTARY
Eur/Usd - support at 1,2530 then 1,2480/1,2500, rsistance 1,2585 then 1,2610/20, pair could be under pressure from eur/jpy, holding short also i think about another one if 1,2530 will be break......
Gbp/Usd - 1,8290/8310 shoud be tested, resistance 1,8420 stronger near 1,8490, tommorow BOE minutes.....
Usd/Jpy - range possible 115,15-75 for some time....
Usd/Cad - holding long, waiting for brak yesterday's high, if...... :)
JPY - lokking to buy small with eur, jpy and chf......
Gbp/Usd - 1,8290/8310 shoud be tested, resistance 1,8420 stronger near 1,8490, tommorow BOE minutes.....
Usd/Jpy - range possible 115,15-75 for some time....
Usd/Cad - holding long, waiting for brak yesterday's high, if...... :)
JPY - lokking to buy small with eur, jpy and chf......
Monday, June 19, 2006
!!! BETTER CAD DATA !!!
Foreigners bought heavily in Canadian equities in April, driving net foreign purchases of Canadian securities to C$3.90 billion ($3.48 billion), compared with C$3.33 billion in March, Statistics Canada said on Monday. Canadians bought C$4.69 billion in domestic securities in April.
NZD/USD
0,6155 looks strong support, but only above 0,6180/85 possible rebound towards 0,6220, watch.....
19.06 - EUR/USD
pair is below 1,2580, still waiting for bounce.....
try to sell rallies towards 1,2610/20....
try to sell rallies towards 1,2610/20....
19.06 - stronger usd
usd is stronger during Tokyo session....
usd/jpy - strong resistance at 115,45 was taken out....
eur/usd - support at 1,2620 was broken, now 1,2580 is testing...., bounce possible towards 1,2610/20
gbp/usd - support at 1,8470 was broken....
usd/jpy - strong resistance at 115,45 was taken out....
eur/usd - support at 1,2620 was broken, now 1,2580 is testing...., bounce possible towards 1,2610/20
gbp/usd - support at 1,8470 was broken....
19.06 - GBP/USD
RESISTANCE 1,8530/50, SUPPORT 1,8460/70
below this support propably another test 1,8300 area
below this support propably another test 1,8300 area
Sunday, June 18, 2006
18.06 - EUR/AUD
SHS formation possible, need to close below 1,6815, also watch 1,7115/30 level, strong close above this level will negate this bearish scenario and we could see rise above 1,73 level and test last high near 1,7340, watch carefully...
18.06 - JPY
Usd/Jpy - stand aside or try to going short if 115,40 seen after open,
Eur/Jpy - some profit taking possible from jpy shorts positions ahead jpy data ( generally BOJ minutes ),
Trading idea: sell with tight sl above friday's high should work well, but be carefull if support at 144,80 holds after jpy data,
Gbp/Jpy - the same story, sell with tight sl above friday's high, be carefull if 212,30/50 support holds after jpy data,
Chf/Jpy - sell if 93,20 will be break....
Aud/Jpy - range 84,40 - 85,40 possible, stand aside,
Eur/Jpy - some profit taking possible from jpy shorts positions ahead jpy data ( generally BOJ minutes ),
Trading idea: sell with tight sl above friday's high should work well, but be carefull if support at 144,80 holds after jpy data,
Gbp/Jpy - the same story, sell with tight sl above friday's high, be carefull if 212,30/50 support holds after jpy data,
Chf/Jpy - sell if 93,20 will be break....
Aud/Jpy - range 84,40 - 85,40 possible, stand aside,
Economic data 19-23.06.2006
Monday:
chf - industrial production
eur - eurozone trade balance
cad - international securities transactions
Tue:
jpy - boj minutes
eur - german PPI
cad - CPI
usd - housing starts
Wed:
chf - retail sales
gbp - boe minutes
cad - retail sales
cad - leading idicators
nzd - C/A
jpy - merchandise trade balance
Thu:
chf - trade balance
gbp - cbi
usd - leading indicators
nzd - GDP
Fri:
chf - PPI
usd - durable goods orders
chf - industrial production
eur - eurozone trade balance
cad - international securities transactions
Tue:
jpy - boj minutes
eur - german PPI
cad - CPI
usd - housing starts
Wed:
chf - retail sales
gbp - boe minutes
cad - retail sales
cad - leading idicators
nzd - C/A
jpy - merchandise trade balance
Thu:
chf - trade balance
gbp - cbi
usd - leading indicators
nzd - GDP
Fri:
chf - PPI
usd - durable goods orders
Forex commentary 18.06.2006 - Eur/Usd
Pre-open:
strong resisnatnce at 1,2670 and 1,2700/10, minor support 1,2620 then 1,2570/80, strong 1,2530/50.
Strategy:
sell rallies 1,2650/70 sl above 1,2715 ,first target 1,2530/50, second target 1,2450/70 ( if prices touch 1,2580 support move sl on entry )
strong resisnatnce at 1,2670 and 1,2700/10, minor support 1,2620 then 1,2570/80, strong 1,2530/50.
Strategy:
sell rallies 1,2650/70 sl above 1,2715 ,first target 1,2530/50, second target 1,2450/70 ( if prices touch 1,2580 support move sl on entry )
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