Friday, June 30, 2006

30.06 - END OF THE MONTH

remember end of the month today, smoe profit taking possible,
better to stand aside, have a nice weekend to all :)

30.06 - AFTER RATE DECISION...

another 0,25 hike and more if need, but usd weaker trapped ? or we will see eur/usd 1,3000 again?
weekend ahead i closed all positions, aud/usd was stopped, rest with profit :)

propably today stand aside or :

watch resistance 1,2730 eur/usd support 1,2690 then 1,2650
in my opinion better buy above resistance for 1,2760 first and 1,2800 ( could be today )

gbp/usd maybe good for short above 1,8400/20

look to sell eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, aud/jpy and chf/jpy

Thursday, June 29, 2006

29.06 - FOMC & !!! trading signal !!!

i belive today rate decision + statement will be important for next direction,
what Mr. Bernanke will say and how will understand this traders ?

eur/usd : sell below 1,2500 or buy above 1,2615/25
gbp/usd : sell below 1,8100 or buy above 1,8190 better above 1,8260
usd/chf : sell below 1,2400/20 or buy above 1,2500/20

also i took short aud/usd 0,7315 sl 0,7385 tp open, when 0,7270 will be broken move sl down at 0,7330

29.06 - JPY

eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, chf/jpy - watch today's close, important supports are testing.....

!!! trading signal !!!

close gbp/usd 1,8120 - fast profit....look to sell again later

29.06 - USD/CAD

support 1,1160/80 should holds for another test 1,1240/60 and higher above 1,1300, on the other hand fall below support next target near 1,1120 and lower ( in my opinion little chance for this move lower at this moment, wait for cad data and us data later today and fomc meeting )

!!! trading signal !!!

sell gbp/usd 1,8150 sl 1,8270 tp 1,7950

after BOE governor M. King speech..... - low inflation and steady growth

29.06 - GBP/USD

while below 1,8195 bigger chance for test yesterday's low, if break next target 1,8050/70, on the other hand rise past 1,8195 we could see 1,8236 or even 1,8260/70,
watch reaction after fed rate decision...

29.06 - CHF

Swiss June CPI rises 1.6 pct yr/yr - better than expected

29.06 - EUR/USD

while below 1,2585/2620 we should see another test 1,2480/2500, below this level 1,2320/50... trading idea - try short near 1,2585/2620 with stop & reverse abov this level, first target 1,2480/2500, second 1,2320/50, good luck

29.06 - JPY

weaker data but jpy could be stronger ahead tankan index....

usd/jpy - strong resistance 116,70 above 117,00/20, support starts at 116,30

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

28.06 - FOMC

wait for tommorow rate decision,

eur/usd - while above 1,2470/80 still a chance for rise towards 1,2600,
stand aside at this moment......

!!! trading signal !!!

exit cad/jpy 103,52, waiting for clear direction....

!!! trading signal !!!

close aud/usd 0,7291

!!! trading signal !!!

close chf/jpy 93,47

!!! trading signal !!!

close gbp/usd 1,8182

!!! trading signal !!!

sell gbp/usd 1,8206 sl 1,8266

!!! trading signal !!!

sell aud/usd 0,7301 sl 0,7335

28.06 - USD/JPY

still range 115,80-116,70...

!!! trading signal !!!

sell cad/jpy 103,52 sl 104,25 tp 102

!!! trading signal !!!

sell chf/jpy 93,52 sl 93,92

28.06 - CAD/JPY

103,85/104,20 looks like strong resistance, first support 103,30/40...

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

27.06 - JPY

waiting for jpy data....

!!! trading signal !!!

close eur/usd 1,2585

!!! trading signal !!!

close usd/cad 1.1235

!!! trading signal !!!

close usd/jpy 116.30

!!! trading signal !!!

buy usd/jpy 115,99 sl 115,30

!!! trading signal !!!

buy usd/cad 1,1205 sl 1,1130

!!! trading signal !!!

eur/usd sl move lower 1,2640

!!! trading signal !!!

close eur/jpy 146,20 , we try to get new position after us data or after jpy data ....

!!! trading signal !!!

eur/jpy sl move down to 146,55

!!! trading signal !!!

eur/jpy sl move down to 146,75

!!! trading signal !!!

sell eur/usd 1,2600 sl 1,2680

!!! trading signal !!!

exit usd/jpy 116,50

!!! trading signal !!!

close gbp/usd 1,8190

27.06 - USD

usd looks stronger again while
- eur/usd below 1,2618 target 1,2550 below 1,2500 and 1,2480, look to sell
-gbp/usd while below 1,8260 target 1,8180 below 1,8120, look to sell more below 1,8180
- usd/jpy range break ? propably yes target 117,20 and higher

!!! trading signal !!!

buy usd/jpy 116,50 sl 115,60

!!! trading signal !!!

sell gbp/usd 1,8205 sl 1,8260

!!! trading signal !!!

usd/cad - close here 1,1240 or sl move on entry and wait for break resistance ....

!!! trading signal !!!

sell eur/jpy 146,42 sl 146,90

!!! trading signal !!!

usd/cad move sl to 1.1190

!!! trading signal !!!

b usd/cad 1,1205 sl 1,1135

!!! trading signal !!!

exit eur/usd 1,2588

!!! trading signal !!!

buy eur at market 1,2603 sl 1,2575 tp 1,2663

27.06 - ECB

ecb could be more agressive with rate hike

27.06 - EUR/USD

support at 1,2550 then 1,2530, Ifo index could be important today, watch....

27.06 - USD/CAD

1,1170 - 1,1250 range, look to buy on dip

27.06 - GBP/USD

strong resistance 1,8260

Monday, June 26, 2006

26.06 - AUD/USD

support at 0,7300 still underpressure, below target 0,7250/60...

26.06 - USD/JPY

support at 115,80, resistance 116,40/50 above 117,50 possible...

26.06 - USD/CAD

While 1,1155/80 holds another rally possible, watch first resistance near 1,1230...

26.06 - GBP/USD

gbp/usd watch resistance 1,8250/60

Economic data - 26.06 - 1.07.

Mon

Eur - German CPI
Chf - Adjusted Retail Sales
Eur - Eurozone C/A
Usd - New home sales

Tu

Eur - Ifo
Usd - Consumer confiedence
Nzd - Trade Balance

Wed

Chf - Kof leading indicator
Usd - Fomc 2-day meeting begins
Jpy - Trade Balance

Thu

Chf - Cpi
Gbp- Nationwide House prices
Eur - Grman unemployment rate
Eur - French GDP
Usd - Gdp annualized
Cad - Gdp
Usd - Rate decision

Fri

Gbp - Gdp
Usd - Personal income
Usd - Personal Spending
Usd - Michigan sentiment

Friday, June 23, 2006

23.06 - MARKET

watch daily and weekly close for direction next week....Good Luck

Have a nice weekend

23.06 - EUR/USD

eur/usd 1,2530 support was taken out, be carefull with 1,2488 level....propably better to wait for break

23.06 - AUD/USD

while support at 0,7300/10 holds, possible bounce towards 0,7350...trading idea sell rally or break, target 0,7250/70

23.06 - USD/CAD

watch resistance 1,1242/52 above 1,1300/30...., try long on break or on dips

!!! trading signal !!!

close eur/usd 1,2555

23.06 - EUR/USD & USD/JPY

If usd/jpy will try to get 116,30 today , eur/usd should be on strong underpressure and if will support at 1,2530 break next target 1,2450/80 watch....

!!! trading signal !!!

sell eur/usd 1,2580 sl 1,2635

23.06 - USD/JPY

looking to buy at 115,65 if holds....

23.06. - EUR/USD

looking to sell near 1,2600/20...

Thursday, June 22, 2006

22.06 - USD/JPY

pair is trading above 200 dma, watch today's close, this could be very bullish signal with 121 target...

!!! trading signal !!!

close usd/cad 1,1180

22.06 - USD

failure break 1,2660/70 resistance on eur/usd, strong sell-off from this level, 1,2600/20 support was taken out, watch 1,2530 if will be break potential 1,2375/2425, look to buy usd on dips

!!! trading signal !!!

buy again usd/cad 1,1120 sl 1.0970

!!! trading signal !!!

close gbp/usd 1,8405

22.06. - USD/JPY

looking to buy near 114,60/75 with tight sl....

!!! trading signal !!!

exit aud/usd 0,7395

Wednesday, June 21, 2006

21.06 - CAD

watch today's cad close, cad is weaker on all market after Dodge speech

!!! trading signal !!!

sell gbp/usd 1,8450 sl 1,8495

!!! trading signal !!!

sell aud/usd 0,7342 sl 0,7410 tp 0,7250

21.06 - USD/CHF

looking to buy , support at 1,2340/50 holds for the third time....

!!! trading signal !!!

exit usd/cad 1,1102

21.06 - aud/usd

support at 0,7355 was taken out watch 0,7340

21.06 - EUR/JPY

WATCH RESISTANCE AT 145,15..... SELLING OPPORTUNITY ??? WE WILL SEE....

21.06 - GBP

gbp is underpressure after BOE minutes....watch

21.06 - GBP/USD

1,8470 resistance looks strong, support 1,8360, important today BOE minutes...watch

21.06 - usd/jpy

watch another test 114,50 ( if seen ), and if holds i will try to going long, resistance 115,05 at this moment

21.06 - fx commentary

eur/usd - strong support at 1,2480/1,2530 holds, daily close near 1,2600 suggest that we could see rise towards 1,2660 or even higher, but remember FED next week and we should see another test ( maybe break ) 1,2530.

usd/cad - wrong view yesterday, better than expected cad data, but today retail sales ( weaker number shuld help us ), holding long.....

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

20.06

stand aside at this moment, watch daily close

!!! trading signal !!!

close gbp/usd 1,8430

!!! trading signal !!!

close eur/jpy 144,55

!!! trading signal !!!

close eur/usd 1,2600

!!! trading signal !!!

sell gbp/usd 1,8450 sl 1,8515

!!! trading signal !!!

sell eur/jpy 144,70 sl 145,20

!!! trading signal !!!

sell eur/usd 1,2615 sl 1,2645

20.06 - GBP

tommorow important BOE minutes - should show us next move
gbp/usd support 1,8370 , resistance 1,8435 then 1,8470 and 1,8505

20.06 - NZD/USD

pair can go higher towards 0,6220 hen 0,6250, support at 0,6190.....

20.06

watch today's close

!!! trading signal !!!

eur/usd -stop hit -

!!! trading signal !!!

exit gbp/usd 1,8425

!!! trading signal !!!

eur/usd tp 1,2480

!!! trading signal !!!

b gbp/usd 1,8420 sl 1,8380 tp 1,8460

!!! trading signal !!!

better us data

sell eur/usd 1,2550 sl 1,2575

!!! trading signal !!!

close eur/usd 1,2547 ahead of us data....and wait for a while

!!! trading signal !!!

eur/usd sl move down to 1,2615

20.06.

watch market at this moment......

eur/usd - support at 1,2550 still holds, wait for break..... resitance near 1,2600 then 1,2620

!!! trading signal !!!

close usd/jpy 115,05

!!! trading signal !!!

close gbp/jpy 211,80

!!! trading signal !!!

sell usd/jpy 115,15 sl 116,20

!!! trading signal !!!

sell gbp/jpy 212,05 sl 212,95

20.06 - EUR/USD

eur/usd is a strong underpressure from eur/jpy and eur/gbp ( also from eur/aud )....
holding short position.......

!!! trading signal !!!

usd/cad place sl below 1,1160 ( better 1,1100 at this moment ), i expect we will see sell cad after todays cad data...

!!! trading signal !!!

close eur/jpy 144,52

!!! trading signal !!!

close gbp/jpy 211.85

!!! trading signal !!!

sell gbp/jpy 212,05 sl 212,95

20.06 - AUD/USD

watch 0,7415 strong resistance, consider short....

!!! trading signal !!!

sell some eur/jpy 144,82 sl 145,45

20.06 - USD/JPY

usd/jpy - strong support is testing at 115,00/15, below 114 possible.....

20.06 - FOREX COMMENTARY

Eur/Usd - support at 1,2530 then 1,2480/1,2500, rsistance 1,2585 then 1,2610/20, pair could be under pressure from eur/jpy, holding short also i think about another one if 1,2530 will be break......

Gbp/Usd - 1,8290/8310 shoud be tested, resistance 1,8420 stronger near 1,8490, tommorow BOE minutes.....

Usd/Jpy - range possible 115,15-75 for some time....

Usd/Cad - holding long, waiting for brak yesterday's high, if...... :)

JPY - lokking to buy small with eur, jpy and chf......

Monday, June 19, 2006

19.06

Holding all positions, watch today's close...

trading signal !!!

buy usd/cad 1,1240 sl 1,1140

trading signal !!!

buy usd/cad 1,1240 sl 1,1140

!!! BETTER CAD DATA !!!

Foreigners bought heavily in Canadian equities in April, driving net foreign purchases of Canadian securities to C$3.90 billion ($3.48 billion), compared with C$3.33 billion in March, Statistics Canada said on Monday. Canadians bought C$4.69 billion in domestic securities in April.

trading signal !!!

sell after break eur/usd 1,2560 sl 1,2620

19.06 - EUR/JPY

important support at this moment 145,20, toppish possible, watch at this moment....

trading signals !!!

close eur/usd 1,2585

trading signals !!!

close eur/gbp 0,6824

trading signal !!!

sell eur/usd 1,2605 sl 1,2640

Trading signal !!!

exit usd/jpy 115,64

trading signal !!!

buy usd/jpy 115,63 sl 115,25 first tp 115,85 second 116,25

19.06 - USD/JPY

Looking to buy near 115,40/50 for 115,85 first and then 116,15/25.....

NZD/USD

0,6155 looks strong support, but only above 0,6180/85 possible rebound towards 0,6220, watch.....

19.06 - EUR/USD

pair is below 1,2580, still waiting for bounce.....

try to sell rallies towards 1,2610/20....

trading signal !!!

exit nzd/usd 0,6160

19.06 - USD/CAD

Looking to buy above fridays high....

trading signal !!!

Remove entry limit sell order eur/usd

trading signal !!!

close eur/jpy 145,62

19.06 - stronger usd

usd is stronger during Tokyo session....

usd/jpy - strong resistance at 115,45 was taken out....

eur/usd - support at 1,2620 was broken, now 1,2580 is testing...., bounce possible towards 1,2610/20

gbp/usd - support at 1,8470 was broken....

trading signal !!!

sell again eur/jpy 145,74 sl 146,25

trading signals !!!

close eur/jpy 145,60

19.06 - GBP/USD

Looking to sell on recovery towards 1,8525/40 with tight sl....

19.06 - USD/JPY

115,40/50 strong resistance is testing, above possible 115,75/116,00, watch...

19.06 - GBP/USD

RESISTANCE 1,8530/50, SUPPORT 1,8460/70
below this support propably another test 1,8300 area

19.06 - EUR/CAD

strong resistance at 1,4200, support 1,4145 , watch....

trading signal !!!

sell eur/jpy 145,72 sl 145,90

trading signal !!!

sell eur/gbp 0,6825 sl 0,6850 tp 0,6745

Sunday, June 18, 2006

trading signal !!!

sell nzd/usd 0,6160 sl 0,6185 tp 0,6110

18.06 - EUR/AUD

SHS formation possible, need to close below 1,6815, also watch 1,7115/30 level, strong close above this level will negate this bearish scenario and we could see rise above 1,73 level and test last high near 1,7340, watch carefully...

18.06 - JPY

Usd/Jpy - stand aside or try to going short if 115,40 seen after open,

Eur/Jpy - some profit taking possible from jpy shorts positions ahead jpy data ( generally BOJ minutes ),
Trading idea: sell with tight sl above friday's high should work well, but be carefull if support at 144,80 holds after jpy data,

Gbp/Jpy - the same story, sell with tight sl above friday's high, be carefull if 212,30/50 support holds after jpy data,

Chf/Jpy - sell if 93,20 will be break....

Aud/Jpy - range 84,40 - 85,40 possible, stand aside,

Economic data 19-23.06.2006

Monday:
chf - industrial production
eur - eurozone trade balance
cad - international securities transactions

Tue:
jpy - boj minutes
eur - german PPI
cad - CPI
usd - housing starts

Wed:
chf - retail sales
gbp - boe minutes
cad - retail sales
cad - leading idicators
nzd - C/A
jpy - merchandise trade balance

Thu:
chf - trade balance
gbp - cbi
usd - leading indicators
nzd - GDP

Fri:
chf - PPI
usd - durable goods orders

Forex commentary 18.06.2006 - Eur/Usd

Pre-open:
strong resisnatnce at 1,2670 and 1,2700/10, minor support 1,2620 then 1,2570/80, strong 1,2530/50.
Strategy:
sell rallies 1,2650/70 sl above 1,2715 ,first target 1,2530/50, second target 1,2450/70 ( if prices touch 1,2580 support move sl on entry )